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My EUR/USD Thesis

Hey everyone, long time lurker here. I'm a Finance/MIS student with experience in equity/crypto markets, and now looking to be profitable in forex and to contribute to this community.
I have put together an argument for why the EUUSD will be headed lower for the rest of the year and perhaps into 2019. There are both technical and fundamental aspects that will be presented, with an imgur album attached with a 4H, 1D, and 1W chart. The daily chart is attached with the post. Let's get started!
Technicals:
  1. From a 40,000 ft. perspective, the weekly chart presents a price channel going back to 2008 that the pair has traded in. In early 2018, the uptrend of 2017 halted and then reversed from the upper bound of the channel, while at the same time breaking downwards out of a symmetrical triangle formation - a clear reversal formation.
  2. On the daily chart, we have the 50 day SMA crossing the 200 day SMA on June 6, the first time this has happened since the beginning of an uptrend in May 2017.
  3. There is a potential descending triangle forming, which is labeled on the daily chart. There have been two overhead rejections, and two bounces from the supply zone. On the first bounce labeled "1", there was a bullish engulfing candle that failed to generate a significant rally - then on "2", there was not nearly as much buying pressure present off the bounce, signaling a likely continuation of the downtrend once the triangle is broken.
Fundamentals:
  1. The Fed is further along than the ECB when it comes to raising rates. The U.S. economy continues to experience strong growth in almost all sectors which has led the Fed to steadily increase interest rates. On June 14th, the ECB announced rates would remain unchanged which led to a bearish reaction for the EUUSD.
  2. While the U.S. has been no stranger to political instability, the EU is increasingly being affected by eurosceptic forces. The Italian populist government recently gained power and is implementing anti-EU policies and has considered dropping the Euro/leaving the Eurozone. Angela Merkel could potentially be ousted as Chancellor and thus the de factor leader of the EU over migrant policies.
The trade, and where it could go wrong:
I will open multiple trades after a retest of the supply-turned-demand zone at 1.151, with take profit levels outlined by the gray zones and the black line representing the height of the descending triangle. Trade wars, a downturn in the US equity market, and the de-dollarization in the world financial system are the three big threats to this thesis. If you have advice, opposing views, or just want to tell me I'm wrong, please let me know. Thanks!
https://imgur.com/a/mfzvquG
https://preview.redd.it/8qgds8j600611.png?width=2192&format=png&auto=webp&s=d613143b9eabc13cd3a47477d125fec49b588174
submitted by jakecberry to Forex [link] [comments]

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