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Don't be fooled. This IS The Market Crash: My DD.

I've been researching this a LOT lately because I didn't want to get caught in it. Looking at trends and past data. I believe, strongly, that we're in the middle of the market crash. I used my knowledge and was able to fully exit my entire $500k portfolio on Tuesday, maintaining all my gains. I've even taken a sizeable position in SPY puts ($50k worth of Dec $260). I got my close friends out (well the ones who listened) on Friday at the first sign of positive movement.
First of all, a little history lesson on the Minksy Bubble. It's basically a theory for how market bubbles happen. It occurs in 5 steps. I will outline what they are in basic and how the current market looks in relation.
  1. Displacement: This is the beginning of a new paradigm where the market changes in a big way. For this, that was the Coronavirus. This took place between February to April.
  2. Boom: Increase in spending begins and major gains start to be made. Media attention and market involvement begin to increase. Currently, we've seen a HUGE increase in retail traders (who are extremely volatile) and massive media attention toward the stock market as it relates to corona news as well as stimulus and recovery speed gains. This took place between April and July.
  3. Euphoria: People stop caring about any sort of reasonable investment strategy and just start throwing money at stuff. Tesla is a fantastic example of this, but many other stocks in the tech sector are guilty of this. July was the beginning of this phase as Tesla saw insane growth within a few week period and other companies followed suit very quickly. This continued into late August with Apple and Tesla going to stupid prices after their splits, and all the other big tech names reaching wild valuations.
  4. Profit Taking: Smart money starts withdrawing funds from the market as they prepare for the crash. We are seeing record insider selling, but most publicly, it began with Tesla announcing they would sell $5bn in new shares. Their second biggest shareholder then announced they were conveniently "rebalancing" their portfolio to sell many Tesla shares as well. This was nothing more than a ploy to pull money out without crashing the market, even though it did anyway. I will get more in depth on this phase later. The biggest catalyst was Softbank, though, and that leads me to the final stage.
  5. Panic Selling: This is when people start to exit en masse in order to recoup whatever they can. We are currently witnessing this. The last few days have been a trainwreck on the market, wiping out August's gains entirely.
Now I know you want to say "well look at today. We're up 2% in the S&P!" This is par for the course on a crash. With the Corona crash, these were the rough day to day movement patterns (I'm using Corona as an example for its shortness/simplicity but all crashes have similar patterns):
Of those gain days, the first was a slowdown, but the second was a change of 4.8% in S&P/SPY from an open of 294 to a close of 309. Consecutive, positive days occurred during every major crash. We can see that being mirrored today and will likely see more upward mobility before more big money starts exiting. Don't be fooled by positive days. That does NOT indicate the crash is over. Novices tend to think crashes are a short event and that they should hold through them because they missed the boat. Crashes take weeks, minimum, but usually months, if not years, to become fully realized. Covid's crash is the fastest we've had at one month.
Another trend I've noticed is that these market bubbles are happening and recovering faster and faster. The late 80's Japanese market crash took 6 years to play out. The 2000 dotcom bubble was 4 years. The Chinese 2007 bubble took 2 years. The 2008 oil bubble took 1 year. On the flipside, the 2007 housing bubble took 5 years. The 2008 energy bubble took 3 years. We're about 6 months into this current bubble, but more if you account for any forming bubble from before covid. Maybe this means nothing, but I thought it was worth mentioning.
Bubble analysts always say there is a warning sign prior to a true collapse. I've been seeing these called "violent shake-offs." Most crashes get one, but some get two. We had one with the June mini-crash. One could argue that this current crash could be a violent shake-off. I'll get to the alternate scenario later. Assuming it's not, which I don't think it is, we move to the final trigger, the catalyst.
Catalysts: These are are things required to trigger a bubble collapse. Almost every bubble has had some notable catalyst(s) to trigger the rapid decline. As mentioned in Profit Taking, we've had three catalysts occur so far that triggered panic selling. New Tesla shares, secondary Tesla offloading, and Softbank. They are the big one and who I will focus on for a minute.
To those who don't know, Softbank bought $4 billion in options during the early days of the market post-covid. These options are worth a fortune right now ($30bn estimated), but they have to be sold in order to be fully capitalized on. What everyone is afraid of is Softbank doing just that, or worse, for shareholders: holding through a market crash and losing it all. In the movie, Margin Call (great movie), a hedge fund got wind of the housing market crash before everyone else and ultimately sold EVERYTHING they had in order to get ahead of it, single handedly beginning the inevitable market crash. To be fair, this is a fictional movie and they had a portfolio of like a trillion, but it's really just mentioned to illustrate my point. Softbank has to exercise these options, which have strike prices likely WAY below market value. If they sell those shares, they could easily double their investment, even through a crash. The problem is that people got so spooked by this revelation that Softbank lost over $15 billion in market cap (currently at $112bn). Had this not happened, the speed at which we decline would've been much slower. They have to make those losses up now. You know what would do that? Exercising all their options and selling them for market gains.
They can't keep those options forever, either. At best they have 2 years. Softbank will try very hard to sell all those off without crashing the market, but if it keeps dipping, they will become more desperate and start selling them more frantically, promoting a panic selling cycle. And what are we in? A panic selling cycle.
If this cycle continues with Softbank, more will tack on and we'll see this bubble continue to collapse. If it can hold a recovery this week, it might survive, but of course, I don't think it will. The end of day today really showed that people are afraid and that given any opportunity, selloff will occur. I think this IS the crash. But, I could be wrong. That brings me to the second and third catalysts.
Commercial Real Estate Crash: The eviction crisis is a real threat to our economy. It's brushed under the rug pretty heavily, pointing to the home real estate market and its gains, but the damage is done. Most major commercial real estate buildings, especially apartments, are in disarray. Go look around and see the kinds of deals your local apartments are offering. Where I am, I'm seeing up to 2 months of free rent in some places. I've never seen that before. Everyone is desperate for paying tenants. Most commercial properties can weather a bit of this kind of thing, but we haven't seen anything like this. Small businesses are shutting down, new businesses are not opening. No one is shopping. Who replaces those lost tenants? All these properties are heavily in debt. That's how the industry works, for the most part. Entrepreneurs and builders finance all projects because they are seen as very safe and it's a rule of thumb to never use your own money for investment. The margins had become abysmal before corona. I once looked into buying commercial real estate and found that I would only cover the expenses and have to solely rely on the property value increasing, to make anything worthwhile. This will cause properties to bleed out extremely fast. There is a commercial real estate collapse coming, likely within 6 months, and it will compound any damage the tech bubble has done. Don't forget that this isn't strictly a US problem. This is a worldwide problem.
Vacation Industry Crash: Many countries around the world rely on a steady influx of visitors in order to keep their businesses afloat. This, in turn, boosts GDP. Malaysia, for instance, is a place I personally visited, during Covid, and it was a desolate wasteland. Most shops had employees literally standing outside waiting for a single customer. It was like this for blocks and blocks. Huge tourist attractions were completely devoid of people. It's only a matter of time before our lack of flying catches up to these already poor and extremely hard to maintain businesses. The country in Malaysia I visited had a notoriously low success rate for new restaurants, during the best of times. Now, they are lucky to get any customers. That affect will bleed into the second catalyst. More businesses going under, causing commercial real estate to lose tenants with no one to replace them, causing those buildings to go under, causing banks to be stuck with a boat load of vacant, unprofitable properties, causing them to go under.
Even with a vaccine, we won't go back to normal fast enough to recover the losses. The airline industry is reporting that they don't estimate returns to normal until late 2021, early 2022. Do you think a random Joe has enough liquidity to keep his business running that long at extreme drought? The people at the bottom of the chain, consumers and small business owners, were never prepared to have a cash supply on hand for this kind of hit to their lives. That is going to trickle up to the top and when it does, goodbye market.
Of course, there's also the US election, but that will be a small catalyst as far as I'm concerned.
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Other notable indicators/insights that things don't look good:
  1. Market cap to GDP was 2:1 at peak. The dotcom crash was 1.4 and the recession was 1.1. Currently 1.77:1.
  2. Google trend results for "Market Crash" are trending up. Last week, which only accounted for 3 days, really, already topped the June mini-crash.
  3. An analyst who witnessed the Japanese crash of the 1980's believes this will be the biggest crash we've ever seen.
  4. EVs are the new dotcom company. Many will fail as car creation proves to be more difficult than anticipated.
  5. High growth, high revenue companies do not automatically equate to sustainable companies, despite stock prices pretending they do. For example, Sea Ltd. doubled revenue but also doubled expenses in Q2 2020. eToys is a prime example of this, from the dotcom bust era. Had huge revenue, but their expenses could not be lowered to a sustainable level and went out of business, despite the business model making sense and the revenue stream looking really good.
  6. The PE ratio of the market is above 30, which has historically always resulted in a market crash.
  7. Apple saw 12 million shares exited at the bell today. Prior to that was around 600k peak. This happened for MOST tech stocks.
  8. If you bought Microsoft at peak dotcom bust, you would have to wait 10 years to breakeven (longer if you account for inflation losses). That kind of stagnation is what we're looking at, even today.
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This does NOT mean the entire market will crash. Quite the contrary. Yes, most stocks will go down as the market collapses in overvalued sectors (TECH) brings down the whole thing, but they will stay high if priced fairly. Most epicenter is priced within a reasonable area, for instance, and will weather the storm quite well. At least, until the commercial real estate market collapse catches up to them.
Plan accordingly, set stop losses, and do your own research. I don't expect you to just follow my information blindly. I may have gotten things wrong or mixed some wires. You need to figure this out on your own and make your own judgement call. I simply hope to raise awareness for what I believe is a market crash so that people don't lose their shirt during this. I hope I'm wrong, though I'm literally betting with my money that I'm not.
Good luck.
submitted by ItsAllJustASickGame to stocks [link] [comments]

A Detailed Guide For Building Your Own Gaming PC

Building a PC is actually more entertaining than you think. However if you don't like to do research about a part's specs, then you might not find this helpful. This is how you will truly value your PC, this way you will look at your PC and know its worth, instead of looking at a box shape with some lights.
This guide is useful when building from scratch, since it will go through all parts one by one in the best possible order to greatly reduce the amount of times you have to go back and change parts. (You might not even have to go back and change parts at all).
If you need to upgrade and/or still looking for parts, skip to the respective section for the part, you will profit aswell from reading this guide.
"The most important part is to HAVE FUN!" -Waffler11

Before we start, there are a some things that you have to be clear about:
  1. This guide will not Build the PC for you. This is a guide for you to know what to look for and which parts are most suitable for your build.
  2. Read every single thing you don't know about each part's specs, obviously you don't have to go crazy with all things. I will be mentioning things that YOU NEED to look for, but the more curious you are the better.
  3. This will help you easily determine most incompatibilities and help you build everything part by part so you don't have to go back to a specific part and change it over and over.

Organization
  1. Google for your preferred web page for building PCs. I don't want to seem like promoting a Webpage in particular, but PcPartPicker worked great for me and they give you warnings regarding incompatibility. (Other websites might do the same).
  2. Ask yourself: "For what am I building this PC". To run a game in particular? perhaps to have the best of the best? who knows? Only you. It is based on this that you will build your PC and estimate a budget (notice how I said estimate a budget, because it will vary as you learn more about PC parts).
  3. Once you know what you want your PC for, you will have to preplan. This is having an idea of what GPU you need to run certain games, and is actually the most notorious part of a PC, so think of one, but might not be the definitive GPU (you might even want to change GPU brands).
  4. What if you want to choose the Monitor first? No problem at all, you can also choose your desired GPU based on the Resolution and Refresh Rates you wish to play. In this case if you want to know which monitor will be the best for you, scroll down to the "Monitor" part of the Guide. (Keep in mind that prioritizing the Monitor means you have to try to keep the GPU that can run at the desired Resolution and Refresh Rates while also keeping in mind any bottleneck from both GPU and CPU)
Notice: Some RGB counterparts will be more expensive, so if you want a lot of RGB on your PC, you know what to expect on that budget. More on this as the guide goes on.

First Part: CPU
Forget about that beautiful case you saw somewhere or those cool shaped RAMs or the flashy Motherboard, CHOOSE A CPU FIRST.
How To Choose A CPU For Your Needs
  1. First of all, know your options, Intel and AMD are both very good, check out for those 2.
  2. Please take your time to read about the CPU specs. Things to look for are Cores, Threads, Base Clock, Boost Clock and their general performance in your trusted benchmark webpage. All these specs differ from Generation and Model.
  3. You don't have to worry between AMD, Intel and Nvidia CPUs and GPUs not working properly together or being incompatible, they will work smoothly in any combination.
  4. Consider for the future about Single, Dual and Quad Channel. This is for the RAM, I suggest you read about these now and choose a CPU which supports these Channels. Having more than Single Channel will increase the RAMs brandwidth, leading to increased Memory Read, Write, Copy and Brandwidth.
  5. Stock coolers usually comes with a stick thermal paste already applied as well as some coolers from other brands that you but some may not have the paste applied, so its good that you read if they will have it already applied or not.
  6. Thermal Paste: Keep in mind that eventually you will need to reapply paste if you move the cooler, if you notice an unusual increase in your temps or after a few years. In which case you can get a good Thermal Paste, they are are relatively cheap, make a big impact on your CPU temperatures and are easy to apply. So there is no harm getting a Thermal Paste, just make sure you get a quality thermal paste. And yes, some reduce temperatures better than others but also the way you apply it and the amount you apply helps reducing temperatures, look for the best way and quantity.
Notice: You don't necessarily have to prioritize the GPU over the CPU, this is just in case you plan on only playing less demanding popular games like, CS:GO, LoL, Valorant, etc. they don't require the best of GPUs out there so you can go for a better CPU.

Second Part: Case
Cases comes in many sizes, the 3 most popular ones are: Full Tower, Mid Tower and Mini-ITX. Check out each of these case's sizes and spacing. Some cases of the same size category will vary in sizes, and some times not fit the motherboard of the specific size category. For Ex: An ATX case might be smaller than most ATX cases and an ATX motherboard might not fit properly, so also checking the cases's dimensions where the motherboard will be placed, it is important to be aware of these scenarios.
  1. Keep in mind the size of your GPU (since it takes a lot of space) to make sure it fits on your case. New Gen GPUs are being manufactured in a bigger size.
  2. It's time to choose the manufacturer, they will mostly vary in Aesthetics however keep in mind, you should probably want to make sure the case has good "Airflow", the name itself tells you what it is, but look it up if you are not sure. Best way to make sure the case has good airflow is to check reviews... multiple reviews, and good ones where they will specify what room temp they had during the test so you get an idea.
  3. Make sure you get a modern case, you won't regret it but you might want a modern case so you can use all of the motherboard's ports and not waste a single penny also when upgrading the motherboard, since you are more likely to change the motherboard before the case (this is another reason why the case is the second part).
  4. Check what's in the box for the case you want to choose, it might not come in with enough fans than you expected, or maybe it won't come with some of the things you see in some pictures.

Third Part: GPU
You probably did not expected this but, there is nothing complicated about GPUs.
  1. Look for features about each GPU brand and model, there are brands and model with their own features that is why I can't list them to you, depends on what brand you choose.
  2. You have already chose a Brand because you knew which one would run the game you want to play, or maybe you changed brands and models. Either way, now it's time for you to look about the specifications: Base Clock, Boost Clock & Memory Size. (I want you to look at this because they vary depending on Brand, Model and Series and they give you an idea on which you would rather choose)
  3. Now you most likely already decided your Brand, Model and Series for the GPU, check out the Display Connectors and keep that in mind, we will need this for the monitor.
Notice: The more Memory Capacity the GPU has does not mean better performance.

Fourth Part: Motherboard
Ah yes, the motherboard, remember the CPU you chose? and the case you chose? here is where you will be limited to your motherboard choosing. (choosing the right motherboard might take awhile specially with all the features one motherboard can have and all the different variations). Also you might come across SLI (for Nvidia) and/or CrossFire (for Radeon). Before you get hyped, games need to be SLI/CrossFire compatible and not to mention that sometimes it will not work with different GPUs Architecture. So instead of spending money for this feature in a motherboard and for 1 extra GPU, your best choice is for a single high-end GPU. (Also with the amount of power and performance on the new gen GPUs, SLI and CrossFire are less worth.
*IMPORTANT: Please read motherboard specs and features, literally anything you don't know, look up what it is, this is critical for building a PC. Looking for everything will also let you easily identify incompatibilities. Some motherboards does not include Sound Card and/or Wi-Fi cards.
  1. First, and I mean it, first you must make sure that your motherboard fits the case, motherboards commonly come in mini ITX and ATX, look those up in google and make sure which size is the one for your case (obviously you will realize a mini ITX motherboard can actually be used on a mid tower or bigger).
  2. Now you will choose a motherboard with the right Socket depending on the CPU you chose.
  3. Now make sure that the motherboard's BIOS is up to date with the CPU you chose, or you will get firetrucked up yours. Pro Tip: google "Best motherboards for [CPU of your choosing]".
  4. Another important thing to consider for a motherboard, if it supports Dual Channel & Quad Channel.
  5. Great, with all those 4 filters, you can freely look for a nice looking Motherboard for your PC build and read the specs, yes please read them you won't regret it. Specially since I almost bought a motherboard dedicated for custom water cooling, I was about to pay extra for nothing.
  6. Some other important things to look for in a motherboard are the amount of VRM and their quality. The amount of Memory Type and also how much Memory Speed is supported, the storage drives slots available. Another lesser thing to look for in a motherboard, is that each motherboard brand offers their unique features, check them out if you feel like and see which one you like the most.
Notice: Wi-Fi Cards are not mandatory, they are more of an option.

Fifth Part: RAM
There is more to look for a RAM than you might think, don't just look for a RAM based on the amount of GBs it has. RAM comes in different Memory Type and have different Memory Speed and CAS Latency, check out what role both of these terms play in a PC to choose your preferred one.
  1. You can buy individually RAM usually comes in pair, properly named as "RAM Kit", which some are 8GB (2x4) or 16GB (2x8) or 32GB (4x8) or 32GB (2x16) etc. If you still haven't figured it out, let me explain: Ex. we have 16GB (2x8). The "16GB" is the total memory capacity, this total memory capacity is divided into 2 different RAM sticks, each one with 8GB capacity. (Think carefully which kit you choose, since your Motherboard has limited RAM slots).
  2. Which RAM to choose? one that does not exceeds the Motherboard's max Memory Capacity and that is the right Memory Type for your motherboard while also making sure the RAM can run with the CPU. Another pro-tip: google "best ram for [CPU of your choosing]".
  3. Remember about Single, Dual and Quad Channel. Be sure to check if both the motherboard and CPU are compatible with Dual Channel and/or Quad Channel.
  4. Once you have chosen a RAM brand, and want to increase your RAM Memory Capacity, you have buy the same brand of RAM and RAM Model.
  5. You can freely choose the RAM's Aesthetics you like the most (also, RAM can be more expensive just because they have RGB). There is a catch though, look up if any Brand's RAM model has any known issue with certain motherboards or CPUs. Since looks might be deceiving.

Sixth Part: Storage
Probably the simplest part, SSD is a lot more faster and expensive than the HDD, so much faster that if you have an SSD and you don't install windows on the SSD you must really enjoy looking at your OS booting up.
  1. SSD is faster for gaming, yes, game loading times is not mainly determined by GPU, its by storage drives. But SSD gets expensive as you get more Storage capacity, so you can have SSDs and HDDs both in the same motherboard, if your motherboard has the designated storage slots for the drives.
  2. Look for these terms: Form Factors for Storage Drives, SSD, HDD, Write/Read speed, Random write/read IOPS.
  3. Check special features for each individual storage drive from each brand.

Seventh Part: Cooler
This will be long because of all the different things to cover.
First of all, Search what OverClocking a CPU is. You don't need to know how to OverClock yet, as it also depends on which CPU you chose, but if you are interested in OverClocking, I recommend you learn how a CPU Clocks and Voltages works together, then you learn how to OverClock.
Answer these questions:
Does your CPU comes with a stock cooler?
Yes No
Do you plan on OverClocking your CPU? You must buy a Cooler
Yes No
Highly recommended to buy a Cooler You don't need to buy a Cooler
(If you are reading from mobile, there is a table that won't properly show. The table determines whether you should buy or not a cooler based on your plans)
*If you don't want/need to buy a cooler you can skip to the next part*
There are Air Cooler and Water Cooler (AIO). AIOs are water coolers already built that will only require screwing to mount and do not take up much space, perfect for RGB builds. However, AIOs might not fit your Case and some Air Coolers are not compatible with your motherboard.
  1. First choose if you are going with Air Cooling or AIO, both are good ways to cool the hottest of CPUs, so don't think Water is worthless or Air is worthless.
  2. Check out which cooler you like the most and take these into consideration: How much they can cool the CPU during load and idle times while considering how much noise (dBA) they produce the harder they have to work to cool the CPU. (The amount of noise is personal preference, if you want a quieter place or don't mind the little noise)
  3. After choosing one, make sure it fits your case and/or it is compatible with your motherboard. Best way to check this is looking for Reviews, Youtube videos for the specific case and cooler or asking on Reddit or the Cooler's webpage might provide that information. (Yes, if you know the measurements of the case and the Coolers it should fit, but there could be some exceptions or a little piece from the inside which will block the cooler, best bet is the 3 previous suggestions).
Notice: I do not talk about custom water cooling, there is no specific way to install it so you would have to carefully measure and get the individual parts. Also installing such cooler is a lot harder very expensive and you would have to really enjoy working hard to give it maintenance. I would suggest you stick with traditional coolers.

Eighth Part: Power Supply Unit
Hopefully the webpage you chose to build your PC is able to estimate your fully built PC's Watts consumption, from this estimate you will choose a proper PSU. Before we go on, forget anything you read about PSUs, this part has a lot of mixed "opinions". Once you read more and more about PSU you can have your own opinion about PSUs.
  1. Look what are the differences between a Fully Modular, Semi Modular and Non Modular PSU. (Fully Modular becomes more expensive, but opens up for more compatibility and any future parts upgrade, this is a very important thing to consider, however you might not need a Fully nor a Semi Modular PSU).
  2. It is important to check the PSUs Certification. Any Certified PSU is a safe choice, you might want to read why PSU are certified and what each type of certification means.
  3. Now like any other part, PSUs also comes in with different features depending on the brand and their different models. Also keep in mind the most important things to look in a PSU is the amount of output pin slots and the size of the PSU will fit your case.

Monitor
You sure have one in mind, but listen carefully, read about every terms in a monitor, know what those 1ms Response Time and 144hz Refresh Rate you often see on the specifications mean.
  1. Be mindful when choosing a Monitor Size, a 27" 1080p monitor looks like it has less Resolution than a 24" 1080p monitor, and this is because of the PPI. Look up what that is and then you can have an idea of what would be the ideal Monitor Size and Resolution.
  2. There are 3 different panels for monitors: IPS, VA, & TN. Each of this panels offer different functionality. It is something important to take into consideration.
  3. Now, if your GPU has an HDMI 2.0, to fully take advantage of your GPU, get a Monitor with an HDMI 2.0, maybe your GPU has DisplayPort 1.4, which offers more bandwidth than HDMI 2.0, then you would want to consider buying a monitor with DisplayPort 1.4. Look all about the different Video Connectivity Protocols. Keep in mind that you don't need to have the exact same protocol on both ends, for Ex.: You can connect the DisplayPort cable, from the 1.4 on your GPU into the 1.2 into your Monitor and work fine.
  4. Again, each Brand and their models have different features and design, look around which one you like the most.

That is all about the crucial parts of a PC, you can then add another GPU, or another case fan, or a toy, even a toy, like an anime figurine or whatever, seems to be trendy now a day.
Hopefully you found this useful in any way possible, and I would be a very proud to know you read everything just to build your PC, your "Baby" if you will.

I'll leave these useful web pages that I personally think you should know about while building a PC.
CPU-world.com - Use this to check out all information about a certain CPU. (Don't let the weird names and numbers scare you)
Pangoly.com - A website to Build your PCs and is also very good when you want to compare different part options.
Obviously you can also use YouTube and Reddit for reviews and/or specific questions, comparisons and statistics.

Please consider leaving any kind of feedback, if there is something that should be reviewed/changed on this guide, do let me know so I can work on it ensure this guide as flawless as possible. Other than that comment anything you did like, as always following this subreddit's rules, I will be more than happy to read all comments/questions. I would also appreciate anyone else answering other users questions as you would be helping me out while I am busy on something else.

Message for this post: Some may have felt let down by the guide, most of you appreciated it and I did not expect this guide to blow up like this. I personally made this from my own experience and my goal was to encourage people to research everything themselves when building a PC. when I did it myself, I enjoyed it very much. The title seems misleading yes, it is a lot of "google this and that" and less of a glossary for you to know what each thing is. But I am not going to leave it like this. Thanks to all the feedbacks I have been getting in the comments, all the incorrect points and other points I missed, I will fix them and soon enough this guide should be good for anyone reading this. I ask you to not stop commenting out these important details, let us together finish this guide, after all I started to grow fond of the buildapc subreddit and I want the best for everyone here. Thank you all for the support and critics.
submitted by Bushott to buildapc [link] [comments]

I work at a train station that services unusual destinations. Last night a passenger exploded.

“Elle is it?”
“That’s what my name badge says.” I responded flatly to the man in the red bowler hat on the other side of my plexiglass ticket booth.
He’d been complaining about a cancellation for at least twenty minutes.
“Well Elle, I’d like to speak with your supervisor.”
Great. My favourite line. I prepared my scripted response.
“I’m the only staff member on duty at this time, if you have an issue you can log it with the phone number on the poster.”
I tapped the glass next to the poster detailing how to contact Connected Railways head office. It was one I’d had to demand after one too many incidents with disgruntled passengers angry at delays, cancellations and prices.
I didn’t control that shit, and I was sick of being abused for it.
Red bowler hat inhaled sharply for a prolonged period. His face turned so red it reminded me I had some strawberries in my fridge at home that needed using before they went bad.
As he took in more air, buttons on his shirt began to detach and ping in all different directions. I was suddenly more grateful than usual for the plexiglass as the little plastic pucks bounced off it. I sighed deeply and hit the red security button underneath my desk as I braced for myself for whatever onslaught was to come next.
Then he blew up.
Not blew up as in he ranted and screamed at me like a normal asshole customer in a service based industry. No. Red bowler hat man inhaled so much air he quite literally blew up, spattering blood across the floor of the station entrance, my ticket booth and any other passenger in a ten foot radius - Luckily there was only one, who hastily made their way to the platform.
I looked on in despair as his hat rocked a little upon impact with the floor.
I know I should sound more shocked, frightened even, when I talk about a man exploding before my very eyes. That would be a normal reaction; but incidents like that one were ten a penny at the station and had become more of an annoyance than a source of terror. In my line of work, a man exploding was relatively normal. Not terribly extraordinary, at least.
“What a mess. Is everyone ok?” Atlas arrived, befuddled as he looked at the pile of scattered organs on the floor.
Atlas was the night security guard, one of only two other members of staff in the entire station and my saviour, from both boredom and the unusual passengers. He had long, dark hair that he pulled into a messy bun on top of his head that always made his hat sit strangely.
“I think so. Just need to call Nicky and get things cleaned up. Sorry for summoning you, I thought it was going to be much worse that that, the guy looked angry.”
“Never a bother, Elle. You know that. Nicky’s going to love-“
Atlas was cut off by a loud and nauseating slurping noise as the organs and bits of person started to move together across the concrete floor as if they were suddenly magnetised.
The blood on my booth congealed into droplets that danced down the screen and towards the collecting mass. The explosion hadn’t been entirely out of the ordinary, but this was beginning to pique my interest.
“Good job you called.” Atlas continued, a curious expression on his face as the mass built to a height that towered above us both.
Screaming, naked and covered in a transparent goo, red bowler hat man was reborn and much bigger and angrier than he had been before. He bent over, picked up the bloodied hat and placed it on his head before approaching the booth.
I wasn’t sure on the purpose of the hat. After all, the rest of his clothes remained shredded on the floor. Regardless I found him quite intimidating and almost wavered through my next scripted response.
“Sir, I’m going to have to ask you to leave Connected Railway’s property.”
Red bowler foamed at the mouth, revealing a set of yellowed teeth and continued squealing into the open air. I cringed a little and tried to look away, watching the unsuspecting, oblivious people in the street behind him and envying their ignorance.
They were only a few feet away and yet to them, the incident wasn’t happening at all. Oh how sweet it must have been to not see the booth, the blood or the naked man screaming in the night. That would’ve been a real treat.
The station I work at is only visible to those who are already aware of its existence, or it would’ve been quite the scene, even at 2am. That’s what I’ve deducted in my time here anyway. I’d walked this street a thousand times before my interview and never once seen a station entrance.
There was no other explanation. My employment, as a normal human that stumbled across the advert by pure dumb luck, was more unusual than anything I’d witnessed from red bowler hat man.
I stayed firm, maintaining eye contact as I watched Atlas creep up behind the creature and hold up a pistol. A security guard with a gun wasn’t a typical sight in England, even in the city, but then nothing about my workplace was typical.
He pulled the trigger releasing a sharp point and injecting a yellow liquid into the man’s neck. I watched as he dropped to the floor, shrinking into the disgruntled passenger he had been prior to the explosion, albeit stark naked.
“Where was he headed Elle?” Atlas asked, grabbing hold of the now comatose creature and struggling with the dead weight as he tossed him over his shoulder, careful to avoid certain regions.
“He was moaning about the cancellation on the village line. Cordyline Hill via Monsoon Valley. I tried explaining that there was one thirty minutes after but he didn’t let me...”
“I’ll take him down to the platform now and page the guys at Monsoon Valley. Village line comes in at 2.22 and reaches MV by 2.46. He should stay like this until then. He’s their problem now.”
“Finish.” I added just as he walked away.
I sighed. I was grateful for Atlas but he could be tone deaf at times and was blind to the irony of cutting me off just like Karen in the red bowler hat had. I leaned back in my chair, kept one eye on the large antique clock on the wall to the left and prepared for the rest of the night to go by uneventfully.
I know it seems strange, to be so positively apathetic. You have to understand how real desensitisation is, the more we consume the easier it gets and bowler hat wasn’t the first and definitely wouldn’t be the last monstrous transformation I’d see.
I can’t explain the things that go on at the station entirely. I have my theories, but I have no way of confirming or denying them.
The only hard facts I have are these; I have never heard of a single station we service, I’m absolutely certain that at least ninety percent of our passengers aren’t of the human variety, regardless of the risk I run of being eaten I’m still paid a pittance like every other booth worker in the country and on any given day I might have to drive home soaked in blood.
So why do I stay? I stay for passengers like the one that followed red bowler hat.
I’m not immune to curiosity. I recognise that I’m shafted by Connected Railway on a regular basis with only a poster and a charming but undeniably human security guard for protection. But that doesn’t change the fact that when you work with things that are out of this world every now and again you come across one that makes it somehow worth it.
The woman in the floor length tweed coat was not your run of the mill, angry, potentially explosive customer. She was much more.
She approached with a small dog in her arms, her coat sweeping across the hard ground where bits of organ had previously been strewn, walking with such dainty steps it was almost as if she were floating.
She wore a scarf that matched the coat and had a face with more wrinkles than necessary to tell a story. I would’ve put her in her nineties at best, although she was perfectly mobile.
“How can I help?” I asked, attempting to put on my best customer service face.
“A single to Meander Place please, no return.”
Meander place wasn’t a destination I was often asked for tickets to, it sat on the barely used Epstar line, which was mostly used by the more intimidating of passengers.
I’d never taken any of the trains myself, despite my curiosity, but I tried to take note of the people I saw and where they were going. There was no other viable way to pass the time.
“That’ll be £29.50 please”
“I’m afraid I don’t have that, I spent the last of my money in that delightful pub across the street, we’re going to have to come up with another method of payment.”
I held in a sigh. The station sat opposite an unusual, traditional looking old pub called the Pickled Gnome, which seemed to be a popular stop for my passengers before their journeys. I often questioned the type of patrons that it served, although I suppose I was in no real position to.
“I’m sorry, we don’t offer payment plans or alternative methods here.”
“You don’t understand, do you?”
The woman made eye contact with me and I felt my head freeze into position, staring back at her. Her eyes were an incredible marbled yellow with flecks of green. Her next words make my skin crawl.
“This is a transaction between you and I, not a faceless company you represent, Elfida.”
My blood ran cold. No one, not my employer nor even the few people I considered friends knew my full name. I managed to break my trance like fixation on the woman to check my badge and just as suspected, it said Elle.
“Who are you?”
“Interesting. You don’t want to know how I know your name, you want to know who I am. You have a habit of asking all the wrong questions don’t you?”
“What are you talking about?”
“Hah! See, again. Another useless question. I suppose as I know your name it’s only fair you know mine.. Agnes Copper. Haven’t you ever wondered why you’re here?”
She placed the small, scruffy looking dog on the floor and extended a frail, skeletal hand out towards the booth. Hand shaking I pressed the security button hard, eliciting a wry smile from Agnes.
“That’s not going to work Elfida. I’m glad I have you attention though, if that weren’t the case you’d have noticed the clock you’ve been watching for the past few hours stop.”
She was right, the clock had stopped. And I hadn’t noticed. I gulped. I’d dealt with some incredibly unusual passengers, but none of them had ever rendered my security button useless. Or known my full name.
“What do you want?”
The dog barked, making me jump. Agnes shushed him before continuing.
“That’s a better question, dear! Although you already know the answer. I want a ticket to Meander Place, the question is... what do you want?”
I took a moment to try and comprehend her question at all. She spoke with a glee that made me deeply uncomfortable. In the short term, I wanted Agnes Copper gone and to forget about her yellow eyes.
I had a feeling that wasn’t what she was referring to, however.
“Come on Elfida, there must be something.”
“Please stop calling me that. My name is Elle.” I spoke with a quiet defiance. She smiled, enjoying my agitation.
“Oh. Am I getting somewhere? Now why would a pretty girl like you hate a pretty name like that so much?”
I felt a pang in my stomach. I hadn’t thought about my life with that name for a long time. Life before Irene disappeared.
“It’s personal.”
“I know dear. I think you’re aware I already know the answer.” Her eyes lit up and she licked her puckered, wrinkled lips as I shuddered at her words. “You’re wondering now if I know where she is aren’t you?”
I was. She was right. Who wouldn’t wonder? When my little sister went missing there wasn’t a trace of her left in my parents home... my old home. She was only eight years old and one morning she just wasn’t in the house, they never found a stitch of evidence. That was enough to drive my parents to alcoholism, abuse and eventually divorce.
I got it. They lost a kid but it sure did suck to be the sister left behind in the shit storm. Ten years old and I had to roll my mother over to stop her choking on her own vomit. I put up with eight years of that before I fled, came to university in the city, shortened my name and never went back home.
Of course I wondered where she was.
“Do you.. know where she is?”
Agnes laughed an evil cackle, sinister enough to make every bone in my body vibrate. I felt weak, like all the wind had been knocked straight out of me. I tried to control it, but tears fell against my will. I hadn’t thought about Irene in so long.
“Are you a gambler, Elfida?” Agnes asked, ignoring my question entirely.
“I’ve never considered myself to be a betting woman.” I answered, voice shaking audibly.
“Well I think it’s time you start. If you print me a single ticket to Meander Place I will give you a clue. What a wonderful thing? A little piece of hope. The clue could lead to that little girl you seek... or it might not. After years of no answers, isn’t it worth the risk? For the minimal cost of a £29.50 ticket.”
“If the clue is useless, what are the consequences?”
“A better question. Finally, you’ve got it! Shame we’re almost out of time, my train leaves in a few minutes and I’m not too quick on my feet. Make a decision Elfida, I think you know I’m getting on that train either way.”
I hated arrogant customers. I made a point of ensuring I did my job properly, no matter what crazy things were going down in the station, but Agnes made a compelling case. She may have looked old and frail but she froze the air in the space around her. I wasn’t confident I’d even get close to stopping her board that train.
How could I let the opportunity to find Irene slip away?
I printed the ticket. Of course I did. One way to Meander Place, the Epstar line. Agnes continued to frantically lick her lips as the machine made the printing noise. Her mouth moved like a snake, it terrified me.
As I handed it to her through the slot she reached into her pocket and pulled out a tiny red box, only large enough for small pieces of jewellery, replacing the paper slip with it.
“Thank you Elfida. I hope you find what you’re looking for.” She winked a reptilian yellow eye and shuffled away from the booth towards the platform entrance.
I sat there for a few minutes. Staring at the box, then back at the clock that continued ticking the moment Agnes was out of sight. I searched for her on the platform security cam that faced me inside the booth but she’d vanished. No trace.
Just like Irene.
I stroked the box, unsure I even wanted to know what was inside, while simultaneously desperate to see the contents.
“Elle! Monsoon Valley just called, the guy had the same argument with them. Popped all over again, the guard there is having a total crisis. Thank fuck we’re rid of that shit, right?” Atlas interrupted my deep and brooding thought.
I shoved the box into my pocket as quickly as I could and looked up, blinking away any residual tears from my interaction with Agnes.
“Ha, sounds like a blast.” I joked, managing a chuckle from Atlas, “We’ll have to tell Nicky about it when she’s done with platform nine.”
“Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and check on her anyway, the Epstar line just blasted through there, never know what unsavoury characters might be about.”
Atlas spoke seriously but I struggled to take him so. He always seemed impervious to the strangeness that surrounded us and my recent meeting had cut through my apathetic disposition. I was relieved when he wandered off, giving me a chance to breathe.
After a few moments collecting myself I finally gathered the strength to reach into my pocket and open the red box. When I saw the contents I almost flung them and the box at the floor and ran.
Inside was a finger, a small severed finger. The nail was painted pink, splotches on the skin around it, like it had been painted by a child.
It had. I’d painted Irene’s nails that exact shade the night she went missing. But it didn’t make any sense, it had been years... and the finger was so fresh... even if she was alive, how could she still be so small?
Fighting the bile in my throat I noticed a pattern... words, intricately carved and so minuscule they were a struggle to read.
Find me in Thistle Park.
The boys on bikes
submitted by newtotownJAM to nosleep [link] [comments]

Bankrupting Institutional Investors for Dummies, ft GameStop

BIG UPDATE: New 13D/A Form; Ryan Cohen disclosed it has held recent talks with the retailer's management and board members. RC Ventures says it believes that under the right circumstances it could produce the best results for GameStop shareholders if it were more involved.
I. INTRODUCTION
II. CONSOLES
III. POST CONSOLE CYCLE
VI. BALANCE SHEET
V. MAJOR BACKING
VI. THE SHORTS
VII. CONCLUSION
Tl;dr
10c 9/25 to play XBOX prerelease
10c 10/2 to play Mobile App/Stimulus
10c 11/20 to play Console Release Date
10c 4/16 to play Holiday Earnings/short squeeze
***most text references are from GameStop's Q2 transcript which you can find here.
***Digital vs Physical preorder statistic from u/nonagondwanaland
***Additional Digital vs Physical statistics
submitted by Player896 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Rolan Garros Men's Singles Round 1 Matchup featuring jaguars & potatos

Another tournament another app to download. Goot-bye US Open app. Another week of typing F into google chrome before realizing the site starts with an R. The French are classy. But who was Roland Garros? Was he, a fictitious dragon who ruled over the Alps and the Bay of Biscay and all that lay in between? Or was he a French aviator and pilot during World War I? Over the next two weeks, we’ll get to the bottom of this. I know which way I’m leaning.
PS that is Querrey in the photo if you're on mobile, not me
Djokovic Ymer : Novak’s biggest win at the French Open is having Thiem and Nadal on the opposite side of the draw. A healthy reward for the #1 player in the world, and one that will mean a very wide open draw and a very enjoyable snackathon while he watches the other semifinal. Novak, or Snack Attack as he’s known to his close friends and family, will be hungies for this one after a very odd day of frustration against Carreño Busta at the US Open led to a disqualification. Novak won the Rome event with relative ease and is as close to a frontrunner as someone other than Nadal can be at this event.
Ymer has been steadily improving but is still at the top of the challenger level when it comes to clay. This won’t be close, but it’s good to see Ymer stringing together a few seasons of appearances in the majors. Djokovic in 3.
Berankas Dellien : Ricardas Berankas may be closer than he appears. After a good hardcourt mini-swing, Berankas has been absent from the clay warmups. He’s never really been the best on clay although he plays a solid baseline game, and this mostly because while he’s consistent, he struggles to hit through the court on slower surfaces. Dellien on the other hand, does his best work on clay. He’s been losing matches you’d expect him to have a better chance in and hasn’t had many bright points leading up to the break. With Djokovic in the next round and Berankis on his worst surface with minimal warmup, this is a must-win for Dellien. He’s struggled to find the finish line but he’ll have ample chances here, and his defending is similar to Munar’s in terms of lockdown baselining Dellien in 4 or he is likely headed off the tour.
Galan Norrie : This is a brilliant opportunity for Daniel. He’s been hinting at a big run on clay and overcoming a lot of the gatekeepers of the challenger tour, but a lot of third set losses have plagued him, and while it’s considered a short stretch of tour, the clay events are deep with talent. Norrie has ventured to the South American swing once or twice, with relatively poor results. He can be a frustrating opponents at his peak, but his backhand doesn’t get through the court well and he’s just a bit inconsistent with results. He’ll still be a favorite here because playing in the spotlight in a major is something that takes time to adjust to, but Galan will make it close and could eke out a win since he’s still a developing player. Galan in 5.
Sandgren Hurkacz : Sandgren hasn’t had a terrible time on the dirt this year, qualifying for events the last two weeks and unfortunately running into guys who are simply better than him. Almost beating Caruso is a great step, and a year ago that would make him a bit of a favorite to beat Hurkacz. Those of us who watched his matches with Rublev and Schwartzman saw a different Hurkacz from the inconsistent but promising server that’s been exhausting bettors while losing after winning the first set time and time again. Hurkacz was hitting very clean and generating winners relatively easily, and while his serve left him late against Diego, playing a returner like that in a long match will do that to you.
Sandgren and Hurkacz will both be hitting a heavy ball here and looking to hold behind big serves, but one of them has had higher level success in the past few weeks, and I think Hubert, or “Hubert”, as he’s known down at the ‘ol library, has the better serve and bigger groundstrokes. Hurkacz in 3-4, and please when you look at Hurkacz picture him wearing glasses and looking up from his wooden table anytime someone coughs across the room.
Garin Kohlschreiber : This is a good start for Garin, whose physical state is somewhat dependent on Tsitspas. A finals appearance on Saturday will make for a tough turnaround, but I don’t think he’ll withdraw from a major, and given Kohl’s loss to a super-hampered Fognini last week a little bit of fatigue won’t be too much of an issue. That being said, Garin’s game is largely dependent on physical effort and being a ball machine. I would say it’s split 95% that, and 5% having elegant hair. Kohlschreiber won’t just disappear and if Garin is a ghost of himself, he’ll lose, but that’ll be a big dip in level in a short period of time, and the fatigue I expect to hurt Garin’s run at the French is more of a 3rd-4th round type of struggle. Garin in 4.
Humbert Polmans : Polmans name backwards is Snamlop, and that’s important because it’s now the second thing you know about his clay game. Polmans wears a hunting cap and plays a very energetic and consistent game. In normal circumstances he’d have a puncher’s chance, and the lucky losers in tour events are classic for pulling a number of upsets (like Bublik this week) but this is not the spot. Humbert played great in Hamburg and lost early enough that he’ll have a few days to travel and get ready for RG. Humbert in 3.
Vesely Broady : These two will be very happy to play each other first round. Vesely has only just started to eke out wins on this clay swing and Broady has just qualified for the first time, beating Polmans and Kuhn along the way. These aren’t the type of wins that suggest he’ll beat Vesely, but Vesely’s struggles are the kind of thing that could see lower-tier players reel him in. I expect Broady’s timing to be a bit better than Vesely’s to start as he’s had a few matches on these courts, but Vesely really is a tour level player at the end of the day, so I believe both players will have some difficulty pulling away here. Someone in 5. The Vesely that lost to Vukic in a challenger loses. The Vesely that played a decent match against Humbert wins.
Majchrzak Khachanov : If you got into a car accident with a basket full of the alphabet, you miiiiiiiiight get this combination of letters. Kamil just won a challenger in Prostejov, beating some quality players and Andujar in the finals. Everyone who knows Andujar knows he was raised with jaguars, and wins two titles in a row every year then disappears. Majchrzak interrupting this is a very brave feat, but also one that means this isn’t the one-way traffic that a Khachanov Majchrzak match normal would be. The problem for Kamil has been distancing himself against mid-tier opponents, and that is exactly what Khachanov big hitting and aggressive serving have done. Karen struggled against Lajovic last week, but that’s a puzzle he hasn’t solved yet, and likely won’t impact his performance here. He’s got a better shot at excelling in the big moments, and outlasting Kamil’s steady play. Khachanov in 4-5.
Baustista Agut Gasquet : This is a sleeper of a great match. The way Gasquet moves around the court in between points is deceptive given how well he covers the court, and his game looks a bit more devoted to flair than it is to hitting winners. Still, his results over the past decade have been brilliant and his serving is sneaky good at times. Zero warmup matches leading into this is the polar opposite of RBA’s commitment to getting in hard yards on the surface, and that’ll be a big edge for RBA. Not his best surface (I’ll stop harping on this eventually), but RBA is playing some good ball and Gasquet is half a question mark heading into this week. Playing at home and not sporting any visual injury means Gasquet won’t just disappear, but I think rust will be a factor. RBA in 4-5.
Uchiyama Balasz : Uchiyama is most famous for being the inspiration for that Nas song, but his second claim to fame is being a helluva tennis player. Many bettors had genuine panic attacks in his first round loss to PCB in last month’s US Open, and having that fresh in their minds could lead them astray here. Attila Balasz is one of the pure clay specialists on tour, and plays a very unique style of tennis. Tons of dropshots, a strangely effective but flailing backhand, and an affinity for hitting forehand winners from 10 feet behind the baseline are on display from him, as well as one of the best kick serves you’ll see. Given Uchiyama got the business from Duckworth last week, this should be a W for Balasz, who can trouble the winner of RBA/Gasquet but likely can’t win. Balasz in 3.
Pella Caruso : Pella has allegedly been diagnosed with Morton’s neuroma, which is an inflamed nerve in the metatarsal region of the foot. I’ve dealt with nerve issues in the metatarsals after breaking a toe recently, and it is the strangest thing. It’s nonstop pain, even when you’re sitting down, but you can still train. Your foot feels like it’s on fire, but you can still walk and you know nothing is wrong. I’m not sure what treatment he’s getting for it, but the stop and start aspect of tennis is going to really preclude him from doing much on tour while this is an issue, and I believe that’s what is leading to his subpar results since the restart.
Caruso on the other hand has become a household name lately, and although he’s done better on hardcourt than clay in the restart, this is a winnable match for him. I’m just not sold on Pella’s physical ability, and Caruso has the power to break down what is normally a rock-solid defense. Caruso in 3. Disclaimer : There’s a big tendency amongst gamblers to jump on lines because they think they have some injury info. Just keep in mind, the information the general public has is always less than what the books have. If anything, a question mark about an injury is a good reason to avoid betting on a match at all.
Millman Carreño Busta : For a while I thought Millman had a knack for drawing guys he’d have a real war with, but it’s just his style. He doesn’t serve aces but he has a decent serve. He doesn’t hit winners but he swings for the fences on the forehand. He doesn’t have much of a backhand but he puts it in play in decent spots. It’s just very difficult for Millman to overwhelm anyone, and very difficult for players to create offense against what he offers. PCB didn’t look great against Nadal, but two weeks of rest will have him in good shape to compete here. I do expect him to make a decent run at this event, and this is a good test to see where his game is at after a huge payday in the USO. PCB is a professional, but I don’t put it past him to struggle to find form/motivation for a while. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Tiafoe : This is the first line I’ll mention. Tiafoe comes in at +170 for this match, which is much closer than I’d set it. Tiafoe isn’t really a productive player on clay, and lost to local hero Musetti in a challenger last week. Struff blew up with a big lead in the third against Khachanov, and lost quickly in Rome as well, but he’s had some great clay results, and I expect him to come through very well here. The Tiafoe we saw at the USO may be a repeat appearance, but this would be the best win of his career on the dirt, so the line (especially after his loss to Musetti) makes me wary. Struff in 4.
Altmaier Lopez : Altmeir is a challenger level player with a big claycourt game. He plays pretty exclusively on the dirt, and while Lopez is a great server, he may take an L here. Altmaier came through qualifying fairly easily, and Lopez is a wildcard for his effort level and service efficiency, but I’d rather back a qualifier in-form than a maybe of an offensive veteran on a slow surface. Altmaier in 4.
Harris Popyrin : This is a nice matchup, as both of these guys wouldn’t be expect to make the 2nd round at RG very often. I’ve been big on Popyrin’s game in the past, but Harris has had the better win in recent times on clay, beating Caruso in two straight. This will largely be decided by serves, and in the interest of honesty, I haven’t watched many of their recent matches. Popyrin was better for a time, but that seems to have flipped. Someone with their hat backwards in 4.
Pospisil Berretini : Oddsmakers have set the games total for this at 32, which given Pospisil’s serve is a bit low. Vasek is by no means a great clay player, and Berretini is going to make quick work of this, but I do think Pospisil will keep him on court for at least two hours. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Fucsovics : Spooky line for this one, with Medvedev (who regularly comes in at -1000 against solid opponents) only a 4 to 1 favorite here. Fucsovics hasn’t played any clay warmups and although Med lost to Humbert it was a side event and Humbert played lights out tennis. I guess the premise we’re going with here is that Medvedev’s style isn’t great on clay, but I think he’ll have a good event here as he was a bit more impatient than usual against Humbert. Medvedev in 4.
Mannarino Ramos-Vinolas : If you like lefties who’ve been on tour forever and never change their game, this is the match for you. Local robot ARV has had a disappointing start to his clay season, courtesy of an unexplainably good Bublik. He’s the type of player who generally needs a bit more time to work the point, and doesn’t go for clean winners very often. A bit like a more defensive version of Delbonis, ARV will have a good chance here to get a win. Mannarino has potential to make this close because ARV hasn’t been winning and that mental state is sometimes a difficult hurdle. He’ll also be playing at home which has historically been a huge boost for French players. It’ll depend largely on the condition of ARV’s game, but it will be difficult given Mannarino’s controlled game and ARV’s defense for either player to pull away. ARV in 5.
Halys Giron : These guys just aren’t that good, but they’re in a great section of the draw. Halys has been hanging around the challenger tour, but hasn’t made a great deal of impact. Giron has had a more impressive stretch of wins on tour, but none of them have come on clay. The crowd will help Halys, and I think he’s a bit more comfortable on clay, but Giron is the better player at the end of the day. Not a lot to separate these two. Giron in 5.
Querrey Rublev : I don’t want you to get the wrong idea about Querrey. It’s easy to say he’s washed up or he doesn’t care or he’s only good on grass and fast hardcourt. What’s difficult to do though is to remember that he did this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ICHm96chw&ab_channel=TennisWizard
That is all. Rublev might be coming off a title win, and the courts will be slower, but Querrey’s work on this planet is already complete. Rublev in 4. PS an anonymous source has recently informed me that Rublev’s house in Russia is actually structured like a hamster emporium and he wears a cape and refers to himself only as Tubelev. Vetting my source now.
Monteiro Basilashvili : Monteiro is somewhere fancy winning a challenger as we speak. I love this guy’s work ethic and he plays like he’s Nadal’s wild cousin who mountain climbs and just plays tennis when he’s in town. The forehand is big and he’s going against a guy who hasn’t notched a win since he came back to the tour. Commenting on legal issues isn’t great, but Basilashvili is facing some domestic assault charges back in his home country and there’s some notion that this is not great for his mental state. If they were both at their peak Nikoloz wins, but he’s in the doldrums and Monteiro is winning tons of matches. Monteiro in 3.
Lajovic Mager : Another tough draw for Mager. After getting a motivated Dimitrov he goes up against Lajovic who found his chops last week in a major way in Hamburg. Mager can absolutely crush the ball but he needs some times to find these shots, and Lajovic moves his opponents exceptionally well. A few missed opportunities against Tsitsipas have afforded Lajovic a few days of rest, and he should be good to roll through this one. Lajovic in 3-4.
Djere Anderson : This one of my favorite matchups in the first round. Djere is a great claycourter and plays harder than most when he gets in a rhythm, but he’s been struggling to win matches lately. Anderson’s return from injury has been similar to Nishikori’s as far as results, but not style. Nishikori has struggled to keep the ball in the court. Anderson seems to be able to play his normal game in stretches, but is hesitant to do so. It’s like watching a baby deer test it’s legs out. In a 2/3 format I think Anderson might sprint away, but here I like Djere to make this match physical and beat Anderson, who’ll be happy to go into the indoor season where things are a bit easier on the ol deer bits. Djere in 4-5.
Mayot Davidovich Fokina : Mayot is not the worst, but he’s not the best. Rublev vs Fokina is probably the best 2nd round we’re going to see in this event, and barring injury we’ll get a look at it. Fokina’s loss against Lajovic looked bad since Dusan was slumping, but looking at his form the next few rounds it makes sense. It’s like playing Paire on a day where he makes no errors and serves 16 aces. You come off the court like wait, where’s christmas? ADF in 3.
Shapovalov Simon : Shap had some clay wins that he hasn’t in the past. It’s nice to see the slower surface giving him time to really craft some winners. There aren’t many holes in his game, and he seems to only struggle once opponents settle onto his patterns since he tries to hit through the court on so many shots. When you see the guy shifting to where you’re going there’s a tendency to try to add some juice. Simon’s physical struggles aren’t public, but there’s something off about him. Age/fatigue/injury. I don’t know. The backhand is still beautiful and he’s still a great player, but he just can’t win lately, and this is the wrong opponent to be moving poorly against. Shap in 3. PS if you haven’t seen Shap’s rap video yet don’t see it. It’s not to be seen, like a rare butterfly or a peanut butter jelly sandwich your child hid in their closet for some reason 4 years ago.
Johnson Carballes Baena : Another match I feel good about. RCB is the RBA of ARV. His ability to push the pace without really hitting for winners is a quality the best claycourters all possess. Johnson can play some clay, but usually only in the USA event that consists of hardcourt players playing each other. This will be somewhat close as Johnson is decent on serve and RCB retired from his last match. The appeal of a big check at a major is such that people will make the trip even if they’re not at their best, and this one is RCB’s if he’s healthy, but Johnson’s if he isn’t. No way to pick, but I’m pulling for RCB, as he’ll be the better round 2 against Shap.
Martin Sousa : The hits keep coming. Sousa simply can’t win a match. He doesn’t seem to be playing terribly, just dealing with a huge slump. Martin will know how that feels, as he’s been taking first round losses when he finally makes his way into main tour events for a while. That changed at the start of this year though, and Martin has been a difficult out on clay in recent months. That likely will give him an edge here, and the confidence being based in results rather than in coaches puffery is likely to keep him pushing where Sousa will have doubts creeping in. Martin in 5.
Barrere Dimitrov : Barrere looked like he’d be making a big impact on tour this year before the break. There are some winners and some losers in any sporting revolution, and halting his progress seems to put him in the loser category. Draws are important, and while the solid hitter could have a chance against the new Kanye, this seems to be the old Kanye. Dimitrov tried exceptionally hard to beat Shapovalov in their Rome test, and it was good to see him playing well against even if the overarching idea is that the pinnacle of the tour has kinda passed him by. Dimitrov in 4-5.
Krajinovic Milojevic : Tough pull for Milojevic, who plays excellent dirt and worked very hard to qualify, notching wins against Leo Mayer and Yannick Maden. Kraj is pretty solid on clay and playing his best tennis the past few weeks. He’ll have to work hard to put Milojevic away, but he should do so. Krajinovic in 4.
Bedene Rinderknech : Strasbourg is in France, and Rinderknech is French. I like it. The 25 year old has been doing excellent recently on clay, and it’s nice to see him get a wildcard. Bedene isn’t the type of player who’s unbeatable, and Rinder’s win against Marc-Andrea Huesler (who should be in this event) shows he’s able to compete at tour level. The “home crowd” issue is probably getting annoying to read about now, but there’s some real comfort zone issues with the French players that lets them play comfortably there. Bedene is still a step above, but this could be close. Bedene in 5.
Laaksonen Cuevas : Henri never blinked in the qualifying, and this is a guy who does way more with way less. He trains his fitness at least as hard as anyone on tour, and while his game is pretty one-dimensional, he gets a lot out of it. He reminds me a bit of a local club champion who plays a tour pro and doesn’t just fold up and hope for their adulation. The serve is big and that’s the main weapon, and he’ll need it against Cuevas. Cuevas doesn’t give up much in the way of rallies and uses his variety to expose his opponents. Laaksonen won’t get tired, but he will have difficult ending baseline rallies, and his somewhat predictable approach is something that Cuevas is well suited to defend against. Cuevas in 4.
Munar Tsitsipas : This is a sleeper for an upset, especially with Tsitsipas playing for a title tomorrow. Munar hasn’t shown the type of world-beating dominance I expected him to on clay, because frankly he is a bit small for the tour, but he has a Nadal-level (RIP my inbox) effort on the court. He is rock-solid from the baseline and has a great attitude. Some injuries have hampered his development but even with Tsitsipas playing his best tennis this won’t be a walkover. The huge edge in serving for Tsitsipas means it’ll be tough for Munar to really apply pressure, but I think it’ll be a similar affair as his match with Garin where he seems in control until he begins making errors. Tsitsipas is still prone to shanking random rally balls and returning poorly. After talking up Munar’s chances I still think Tsitsipas may win in straight sets, but it’s one of those matches where I’d never give the spread. Tsitsipas in 3 difficult sets. PS Munar, or Lil Buttons as he’s known in the tennis rap community, buttons all the buttons on his shirt and that’s cute.
Monfils Bublik : Tough draw for both. Monfils has looked half motivated, as if he wants to play but can’t bring himself to until the pressure’s off or it would be an amazing comeback. It’s time to stop looking at these moments as a slump as this is pretty much how he has spent his whole career. When conditions are perfect, he thrives. These are outliers though, not his real level. Bublik won a bunch of sets of tennis this past week and had his chances against Garin. My initial thought looking at this match was that the games total of 35 seemed low. Bublik is likely to hold serve moderately well, and Monfils is likely to get drawn into the skill contest that Bublik represents with his dropshots/serve and volleys/underhand serves. I think this has potential to be the most entertaining match, and while Bublik is looking very good, Monfils has a lot of time here to play himself into a mental state where he can fight. Monfils in 5.
Gomez Sonego : Gomez and Sonego will both like their chances here. Sonego’s been losing, but to quality opponents like FAA and Ruud. Gomez qualified and got a nice article written about him, but his game has been legit and he’s been right around tour level for 2-3 seasons now. Gomez actually beat Seyboth Wild in the qualifiers, which is a huge win. Sonego really hasn’t won many matches, and that’ll be in his head a bit against a qualifier who is hungry to prove himself. Gomez in 5.
Thompson Albot : Our boy Radu hasn’t really been winning much since the tour’s return, which I think puts an asterisk next to the entire sport. It’s bad form for Radu not to get wins, and I believe that’s what Pospisil’s union is mainly focused on. Thompson was awfully disappointing against Coric in the USO, and is pretty bad on clay, but this again is a nice section of the draw with Fritz waiting in round two (I say that now but by the next paragraph I’ll convince myself he’s going to lose). Thompson in 4.
Machac Fritz : Is it legal to cheer? Machac’s recent results don’t say he can beat a player like Fritz, but he has beaten some players who can beat some players who can beat a player like Fritz. Fritz did well against Travaglia, and likely has the edge here. Some home-cooking for the 19 year old will be a factor if he manages to grab a set, but he’ll have to get there on his own and Fritz’ hitting may be a big factor in this one. Fritz in 3-4 but I’ll be crossin my fingas.
Coric Gombos : I see some people on twitter disrespecting my man Gombos. I’m lying, I don’t go near twitter, and only made an account so I can post a portrait of myself. You can view it here :
https://twitter.com/blurryturtle/header_photo
Gombos probably can’t win this, but he is the Gombosiest. Coric in fouric.
Rodionov Chardy : Is Chardy really tryna play tennis anymore? It seems like he’d have been making a retirement announcement this year but the pandemic ruined it. Rodionov did great in the qualifiers and winning is a habit. Chardy has the skill and serving to outclass Rodionov but he just hasn’t been doing the work lately. The upset is somewhat likely in my mind. Rodionov in 4-5.
Moutet Giustino : Local rapgod Corentin Moutet is a tiny little nugget of a player, who plays a big big game. Both have been winning matches lately, and this will be a tight contest. If this gets deep, I like Moutet as his experience winning 5-set matches is a big factor and his game is better after some miles are on both opponents since he thrives on his speed but plays a bit too far behind the baseline. Giustino in 4 or Moutet in 5.
Kecmanovic Schwartzman : We all know Kecmanovic is a great baseliner. He’s one of the tours more competent pushers, but Diego is just a better version of him. Diego was at his best in Rome, and I expect a good run here. Schwartzman in fourtzman.
I feel like there are more matches than usual. Also always nice when they don’t release the qualifier matchups until the day before the tournament. Thus ends my gripes.
Wawrinka Murray : Is it okay if I think they’ll both lose? Wawrinka played one of the funnier challenger events, losing the first set in almost every single round then winning the match and the title. Murray has hinted at the old Murray at times, but fans have grown a bit sadpants when watching him struggle with mid-level tour players. Murray hasn’t played, and Wawrinka looks like he hasn’t wanted to. The edge here goes to Wawrinka, but I expect a great contest as Murray has no quit in him and Stan has shown a prolific ability to find struggle where there is none. Wawrinka in 5.
Koepfer Hoang : Tough wildcard draw for Hoang, though a year ago he’d have been ecstatic. Hoang’s been winning locally, and I wouldn’t sleep on him here. He has a great serve, a big backhand, and is still developing. Home court advantage adds another wrinkle, but Koepfer will likely be physically recovered from his runs in Rome/Hamburg, and he really showed he can elevate his game and cover the court remarkably during that period. Koepfer in 4, and hopefully he’ll be the wakeup call Wawrinka needs in round 2.
Gaston Janvier : Two wildcards playing each other. Good for them. Probably Gaston in 4 (he has the much cooler name/hits a bit bigger)
Nishioka Auger-Alliassime : This one is interesting given FAA’s struggle to find his serving last week. Squishioka can be very frustrating in rallies, but he just hasn’t been able to win matches on clay. Clay is more of a big hitters surface, even though it’s slow. The work ethic is there, but not the offense. A disaster of a day for FAA if he loses this one; I don’t rule it out but it’s unlikely, and Bublik was in great form which explains half the loss. FAA in 3-4.
Ruud Sugita : Ruud has been excellent for years, and now he is looking like a real threat against anyone outside the top ten, and a big hurdle for those inside it. Sugita is a nice guy, but Ruud in 3.
Paul Duckworth : Tommy Paul’s best surface is clay? He really has shown an ability to perform and Duckworth just enjoyed a zipping in his last outing. One way trafffic, and Paul/Ruud in the second round is a great matchup. Paul in 3.
Opelka Sock : Say no to Jack Sock. It is addictive when this half boy/half potato starts winning matches. I think it continues here. Opelka has played no warmups, and moving on clay for such a tall fellow is really tough. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Sock’s pace, and the easier opponent (defensively) is likely to make Sock really focus on hitting to the open court. Sock in 4.
Honestly you’d tell me if there’s extra matches right? I feel like some guys are playing twice.
Cilic Thiem : Cilic is going to be sick of Thiem by the end of this one, but as a fan this is the perfect early round for Thiem. After playing no warmup matches the concern is rust, and so I’m excited to see Thiem have a match where he has to work right away. Typing that makes me a bit scared, as Cilic has played some ok tennis in the warmup, beating Goffin 2, 2. Still, this sub’s affinity for Thiem’s tumbly bum won’t let him lose in the first round, and as he gets going I think we’ll see him kinda shape into a threat for the title. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Novak : Novak isn’t great on clay. Trouble is, neither is Zverev. After a major finals, I don’t picture a guy like Zverev coming in with a smaller ego. I think there will be some harrowing moments in this, and if Herbert plays well in round one I like him to take at least two sets off Zverev. Zverev in 4-5, and I’m interested to see if he’s on the “slow start gradual turnup” path again, as that’s a terrible plan on clay for a guy who’s prone to frustration.
Mmoh Herbert : Mmoh did well to qualify, besting Renzo Olivo. Add in that Hyeon Chung was in their draw, and you really have a lack of offense in that section. Herbert has been bad recently, losing to a number of players he’d normally beat. His game depends largely on his serving, and while he’s one of the best players at net outside the big 3 (I’d put him first/Sock second) he needs to get there to be effective. Mmoh is a defensive test, but Herbert likely won’t want to get dragged into extended rallies, so this will look a bit like a low-rent version of Garin vs Bublik. I think Herbert at home gets the job done, but it may take some patches of trial and error to crack Mmoh’s defense. Herbert in 4-5.
Delbonis Londero : I was initially excited to back Londero a bunch after his USO run, as I know his best surface is clay. This is his second match against his countryman though, and it is a poor matchup for him as Delbonis has been playing decent. Delbonis his big and segments the game nicely, so the pace of the ball is fast, but the progression of rallies is slow. I don’t expect Londero to lose in straight sets, but it’s hard to back him after losing to Delbonis a few weeks ago. Delbonis in 4-5, but for betting porpoises I’d recommend avoiding this altogether.
Cecchinato De Minaur : Hehe. Finally stringing wins together, Cecchinato’s reward is a maindraw against a guy who is a nightmare matchup. Cecchinato plays a classic claycourt game. Big power and deft dropshots. He needs time to produce the first of those, and De Minaur takes that away. The dropshots are cute, but De Minaur covers the net better than most on tour. He lost to Koepfer in his only warmup on clay, and Cecchinato has won a bunch of matches recently, but this is a fairly even matchup. Both are excellent frontrunners, and I think the first few sets will be very competitive. Hard to pick against De Minaur in a long contest early in the event, and Cecchinato’s defense will likely be an issue if ADM is serving well. De Minaur in 4.
Paire Kwon : Paire still avoiding multiple matches, which is an excellent strategy for his longevity as a pro athlete. He basically could lose to anyone at this point, and his retirement in Hamburg appeared to be “I’m tired”. This is a bad sign, and worse still, Kwon is not a player who’ll beat him quick or represent a dominant opponent he can just tank against. This is one I’d advise listening to rather than watching, as Paire’s outbursts will be better than his play. I’m somewhat expecting Kwon to win, although this is similar to Nishioka/FAA where the more stable player lacks the weapons to just win in dominant fashion. Kwon via retirement.
Coria Jung : Coria is a wall. Jung is not a wall. Why not be a wall? Coria in 4.
Bonzi Ruusuvuori : Bonzi beat Karlovic which makes me sad, but I’m happy to see the challenger journeyman get a shot in a grandslam. Ruusuvuori is slowly becoming a household name, and his clay game isn’t adept but it’s a notch better than Bonzi. Fatigue may be a factor here not in hampering Bonzi’s game, but in Ruusuuvuori’s being more crisp. Ruu-uuu-u—- in 4.
Sinner Goffin : One of the sketchier first round matchups, what with wildcards playing each other and Coria and Jung going at it. This happens though, and it’s our gift to watch it. Sinner is one of the more promising prospects on the tour in a long time, and with the next gen guys finally starting to come through with big results and solid play, seeing a guy who seems more mentally stable than they were early on in their career is even better. Goffin losing quickly to Cilic isn’t a great sign, and he’s always a threat to go elfmode and stifle his opponents ability to play offense, but I think Jannik’s serving will give him a small edge here. Sinner in 4.
Fognini Kukushkin : Fognini had ankle surgeries, or else his recent string of poor performances and losses would be his normal string of poor performances and losses. He doesn’t seem willing to press himself yet, and this is another Paire/Kwon style matchup. Kukushkin will take any victory he gets a look at, but isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent. Fognini’s impatiance against Ruud did include a number of shots that missed by very little, and on the slower courts in Paris he may land a greater percentage of these. I expect Fognini to play a bit better, and this will be about optics. If Fognini feels like he looks bad or is in a spot where him trying would risk his ego, he’ll fold, and Kukushkin will win. This is sad to say about a professional athlete, but Fognini has the ankle situation to fall back on, so if he can’t win,he’ll just swing for the fences and inspect his racquet until it’s over. He’s very pretty tho. Kukushkin in 4, hopefully.
Martinez Vukic : Martinez was the best in the qualifying, and Vukic was in the qualifying. Martinez in 3.
Korda Seppi : Korda is becoming a sleeper pick on tour, and Seppi is notoriously at his worst on clay since he hits such a flat ball. I think this will stretch deep, and I am tempted to give the edge to Korda given Seppi’s recent loss to Klahn and Musetti and Korda’s win against Karatsev, who has been one of the best players in the past month on clay on the challenger tour. Korda in 4.
Benchetrit Isner : Benchetrit can make this close since it’s on clay, but Isner should be able to get into tiebreakers, which makes predicting this almost as annoying as Isner bouncing the ball between his legs. The dude’s a muppet. Someone in 4 tiebreakers.
Evans Nishikori : Evans hasn’t been great, and Nishikori has been worse. Nishikori has looked like he was gaining control of rallies and immediately making errors for a few weeks now, and it’s frustrating to predict his matches because there’s that sense that he will find form at some point. Evans likely gets the W here but it will take a lot of work. Evans in 4-5.
Andujar Travaglia : “BEGONE,” commanded Andujar. I stood there speechless. “YOU ARE AN ILLUSION!” he bellowed, waking several colorful parrots who sat atop his head. I was not there. What he saw was only his vision of me, which had come to him in a dream commanded by the vines and souls of tropical frogs. Confident that I had gone, he hopped off his perch on the mountain peak, and began descending. Not in the usual way via legs and feet, but on the breeze of a thousand moths, while nearby shamans began making a thousand broths. Andujar is back, and I hate this matchup. Travaglia was brilliant on serve leading up to RG, and Andujar was a breath of fresh air on the challenger tour, notching win after win after win and rarely dropping a set. This is one I expect to go deep, as both players are at their best. Who will win? A man does not summon the future, lest it become the present. Shamans in 3.
Diez McDonald : idc
Gerasimov Nadal : So we all know what will happen if I suggest Nadal will struggle in a match. Luckily, I won’t have to here. Gerasimov’s movement isn’t good enough to trouble many players on clay, and Nadal is probably the most dominant single-surface player that tennis has ever seen. He looked pretty human last week against Diego, and his muscles were muscley, but not as muscley as usual. Where is his massive crab-arm? The winner of Travaglia/Andujar will be his first real test. Nadal in 2 somehow.
PS User Kuklachert runs a very fun picking contest if you're interested in discord ... check it out here https://www.reddit.com/tennis/comments/izhabroland_garros_tipping_competition/
submitted by blurryturtle to tennis [link] [comments]

F2P LATE GAME EFFICIENCY GUIDE/ WEAPONS/ARTIFACTS/ RESIN/ CURRENCY/ FARMING

Hey guys, I've super enjoyed this game and experienced and read up on a lot regarding this silly plagiarized gacha game. I am an AR 33 F2P player (although that might change with the upcoming patch in NOV) and have spent a lot of time theory crafting and looking up how to best spend my resources, as any gachagame player will tell you, F2P is all about resource management. Luckily, F2P in Genshin Impact is very forgiving. All content outside of the highest floors of spiral abyss can be cleared with any character you want, even Amber and Bennet can even if the tier lists say they are trash, so clearing content or power generally isn't a "problem" for F2P or Whales till you hit 30+ (which is gacha game hell territory but maybe dont play 10hrs a day like me and wait for the 5week patch structure).Well patch isn't for another 4 weeks so what should I do with the content we have? Well come here come all, if youre looking to build up your favorite character to be a bit stronger or maybe just be a meta slave to be as strong as possible to clear as many abyss floors before reset.
DISCLAIMER:
There is an overwhelming amount of contradictory information on the web right now, THE GAME IS NEW, ultimately in the next week something new and broken might rear its head (like it did last night). I HOPING TO GIVE A CONSOLIDATED GUIDELINE FOR INEXPERIENCED PLAYERS to move and spend their resources as efficiently as possible to have fun the way they want to. NONE, IF ANY OF THIS IMFORMATION WAS DISCOVERED BY ME. I WISH TO SIMPLY CONSOLIDATE IT FOR OTHERS.
SO MOVING ON
SPEND YOUR RESIN: try to spend as much resin as possible and do not max out. Once you run out of story quests its only chests, resin tasks, and daily commisions for consistent ARexp. Sure you might get a bit extra from you adventure book too but resin is what makes this a gacha game. Its like not using your stamina in other gachas.(THERE IS A CAVEAT TO THIS PRE AR30 see RESIN)
There are a couple of things we should be focusing as a new F2P player in Genshin Impact:
PRIMOGEMS/WEEKLYBOSSES:
(Character Pulls, Weapon Pulls/Crafting),
RESIN REWARDS:
[Character Ascension, Character Leveling, Character Talents]
{Weapon Ascension, Weapon Leveling}
(Artifacts, Leylines)
MONSTERS AND CHESTS:
[Farmable Ascension Materials, Mora]

PRIMOGEMS AND STARMONEY:
Character Pulls and Weapon Pulls are generally from Gacha. From this we have 3 currencies to focus on. Primogems and Stardust and Starglitter, As F2P we want to maximize the value out of the few pulls and resources we get. How? One common way is rerolling, which I will not cover here. Do this if there is a character you MUST simp for, but I would HIGHLY suggest against rolling for "meta" or "damage" reasons(which I will cover down the line, F2P can somewhat compete with whales as of now.) Assuming we dont want to reroll we simply spend our primogems on rolls as we get them on single rolls (single rolls are better because you can reset your pity rate for 4stars in less than 10 pulls). Thats it on Primogems, unless you want to spend primogems on Resin, which I HIGHLY DO NOT recommend(you want less gacha pulls in a gachagame?), but if you must (to raise AR or you just REALLY want those ascension mats/artifacts), only spend on the first recharge as gem costs increase as you refill more then spend fragile resins till you hit refresh cap to be efficient.
As you pull from the Gacha 4 and 5 star pulls will net you stardust and starglitter, the important part is how to spend these resources. These shops reset monthly and have limited supply. As F2P the only shop you will sell out in is most likely stardust (unless MiHoYo drops 10s of thousands of primogems for free). However for stardust its pretty self explanatory, buy out the 5 intertwined and acquainted fates for extra pulls. After spend on Mora (one of the bigger resource gates late game). Enhancement stones and Adventurers' Experience are generally not worth it but can be an option if you are desperate after the first Mora option is bought out. Monster Drops should be last priority as they are easily farmed. You should not need to save stardust for fates the next month as the shops reset if you do your dailies and just play the game.
Starglitter is much rarer as you only receive a few at a time for character pulls. That being said if Amber is your waifu your choice is easy, save for the constellation. Otherwise Razor is a great unit and worth the investment as well to get and get copies up for constellations. I would AVOID spending on extra intertwined and acquainted fate for starglitter as you should get better bang for your buck just picking up Razor and buying a copy of him monthly. That being said if you're a gambler.... be my guest... Its only game....Now Weapons, unfortunately as F2P this far into the game I haven't been able to test any of the weapons... The only one I have heard good things about are blackcliff pole for late game content as the passive scales very well (However there is another busto polearm ill get to later). THAT BEING SAID, if Genshin follows gachagame progression (which it does), buying multiple and refining one of these weapons will likely be one of the most stable ways to reach F2P "endgame" down the line in the upcoming months, so save that glitter!!!!!!
But regardless of what characters you pull to keep a general guide we will focus on PURE F2P and assuming NO 4 or 5 star weapons. WE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A PURE F2P LENS. adapt to your own pulls as necessary and feel free to ask questions on specific character in PMs or in comments.
This being said the best F2P characters in MY OPINION for sinking resources into are: XIANG LING, BARBARA, NOELLE
Now Weapon Crafting/Refining: The F2P Godsend. Jealous of whales with seemingly OP 5star characters and 5star weapons? DON'T BE! YOU CAN COMPETE!
%atk attack modifiers in general are the most important stats in the game for progression
some character like support Barbara will scale with HP but that is few and far between.
as of now and outside of 5star and 4star gacha weapons there are many great options! There are 2 main weapon types that are best for F2P players MAX refinement 3star weapons and crafted 4star weapons!
3star weapons, as you know, are INCREDIBLY prevalent in the gacha and easy to acquire. They are even available in chests, the F2P grindstone. Max refining these weapons will maximize their passive bonuses and some of these weapons have GREAT passive bonuses allowing you to keep up despite lower base stats on 3star weapons. IN GENERAL these lose out BARELY on performance to the 4star crafted weapons but they are still great to fill out your team for higher abyss floors or if you are missing resources to craft multiple 4star crafted weapons.
Next are 4 star crafted weapons. In Mondstat you meet the smith early on in your journey, as you increase in AR (AR20?25? someone halp) you will unlock the ability to craft weapons through him. They all cost a "Northlander *weapontype* Prototype" and 50 white iron chunks and 50 crystal chunks, Many of these weapons will be BiS for F2P players as you collect additional prototypes from weekly bosses (you also get a single prototype of each type from the gem shops in liyue and mondstat for 225 sigils each). Many of these weapons are BETTER than gacha weapons. PICK ONE OF EACH WEAPON TYPE and refine those as you collect additional prototypes to maximize damage efficiency on a single unit. You should not be gated by ores as they are farmable mats. These will be what you want to build up over time as F2P current endgame.
3 Star Weapons to Refine and Use
Thrilling Tales of Dragon Slayers: This is easily BiS for support Barbara, a F2P staple Character and even a whale staple with 6 constellations, gives %HP for Barbara Heals and when you switch out gives an %atk bonus to the character you switch into. What's not to love about this perfect support catalyst?
Slingshot: Wanna prove those tier lists wrong? Wanna use Amber in your main team because she's so useful in exploring AND she triggers double fire element party with Xiangling? But she's F TIERTRASH you say? TIERLIST BOOHOO just slap this bad boy on her and spam those left clicks! You make up for lack of %atk with the passive bonus AND crit rate as a secondary stat will still scale well later on!
White Tassel: The previous King of F2P, %atk AND %normal atk, amazing for Xiangling to abuse as primary DPS, Still an amazing option but outshadowed by the 4star craftable spear which is BORKEN
Debate Club: Me hit thing hard, baby version of prototype animus and still good because of it. %atk gud stat
Skyrider Greatsword: %phys damage is good for base damage although not as versatile as %atk and the Passive gives the loved %atk and %def will also Synergizes with Noelle and her skills/talents
Filet Blade: See Debate Club
Cool Steel: give %atk and passive synergizes with Kaeya excellently
4 Star CraftablesIron Sting: This is potentially a good weapon for Kaeya down the line, unfortunately elemental mastery is hard to utilize as a F2P player, remember %atk bonuses are what we really want. Try it out if you wanna try something crazy with Husbando Kaeya but probably not great.
Prototype Rancour: Ah %physatk exactly what we like to see, and even a bit of %atk on the passive, will be great on MC and Kaeya
Prototype Crescent: %atk and more %atk.... Uh sorry what more do you want? Open with Aim shot and fire away. probably the better choice for Amber
Compound Bow: Playing on mobile? Can't hit the broad side of a barn? grab this instead. Big Boi version of the slingshot
Prototype Animus: BigBoi Debate Club, ME HIT VERY HARD, give us what we want which is +atk% with a decent burst passive, good on Noelle for obvious reasons.
Whiteblind: I think OVERALL this is better on Noelle than the Animus on paper due to bonuses you can get from her talents and with GEO MC. The passive does require stacking so its great if you are mainly using Noelle. However if you are only using Noelle to switch in occasionally(because Xiangling OP) animus will be better. BUT if you like Noelle>Xiangling OR plan on using her as your primary character in your second abyss party this is a good choice.
Prototype Malice: Outshined by Thrilling Tales as a F2P support weapon and outshined by Mappa for Damage/Element Synergy. Good middle ground for Barbara but not recommended
Mappa Mare: This is probably your best bet for catalysts, Slap this on Lisa to help with her overload synergy with XiangLing. Otherwise catalysts are probably the most underwhelming options unfortunately. Hope for a Favonius Codex/Sac Frag for supports or Eye of Perception for DPS in the Gacha. (Any Help on F2P mage DPS setups are appreciated)
Prototype Grudge: This weapon does not exist in the face of the F2P God of Genshin, Good if you only want to use Xiangling as a support only.
Crescent Pike: Kinda what made me want to make this guide. WHAT I CLAIM AS GOD WEAPON OF F2P**\* Thanks to u/Burblesz for posting about this at like 3am EST last night or sumthing. Read his thread and upvote it. TLDR: 99% uptime Double Dip on all your atk modifiers ive been telling you to get
So for characters and weapons for our pure F2P example we can have : Noelle-prototype animus/Whiteblind, Barbara-Thrilling Tales of Dragon Slayers, Xiangling-Crescent Pike, MC - Prototype Rancour, Lisa - Mappa Mare, Amber-Prototype Crescent, Kaeya - Cool Steel.
This team focuses on Xiangling + Amber (to give +atk fireparty bonus) as your primary DPS with other characters to support her. In higher tier abyss with 2 teams your secondary DPS can change as you SHOULD be using mostly interchangeable artifacts at this stage in the game for secondary DPS carries. The variation in rooms that abyss offers means you can run different setups for optimization(but at this point do you need my help?). That being said I am partial to Noelle with GEO MC as a good choice
We will refine the craftable weapons as we collect more prototypes overtime thru weekly boss drops.
FEEL FREE TO USE GACHA 5STAR WEAPONS IF YOU PULL THEM! REMEMBER THOUGH 4 STAR CRAFTED CAN BE SUPERIOR OR KEEP UP EXPECIALLY WITH REFINEMENT! %atk attack modifiers in general are the most important stats in the game for progression and this will not change until you start farming for specific artifacts and stat combos. (and once you're doing that, again do you really need MY help?)...................
As far as farming the weekly bosses for prototype loot, always, always, try to hit your next AR benchmark (25/30/35)before doing your weeklies to maximize potential rewards. For reference if you are AR 29 do not do your wolf and dvalin weekly before hitting 30.

RESIN REWARDS:
Lets start off what we can spend resin on daily:
Elemental Bosses: character ascension gems/cores, artifacts ARXP
Domains (talents): Talent ascension cores ARXP
Domains(weapon): Weapon ascension cores ARXP
Domains(artifacts): artifacts(endgame) ARXP
Leyline(mora): Mora ARXP
Leyline(exp): Character EXP. ARXP
Next lets establish which of these we can get outside of resin usage which are: Mora, Character EXP, standard Artifacts. Given we can theoretically farm these infinitely we should theoretically never spend resin on these, So therefore as tryhard F2P genshin players we ignore all leylines. the only times we do these leylines are when we are desperate and lazy. which can happen very often so dont beat yourself over if you do need extra mora and xp. ITS JUST GAME. Edit: Post AR35 Mora is a HUGE problem AND becomes harder to farm so if you wanna invest resin so you don't have that problem, well there you go, just remember how valuable your resin is!
from AR1-30 is actually super simple! Spend as LITTLE RESIN AS POSSIBLE WHILE NOT WASTING RESIN BY CAPPING, only doing ascensions as little as possible AS NEEDED TO CLEAR CONTENT. SPEND AMAP ASCENDING CHARACTERS AND TALENTS AS THEY WILL HOLD MORE CUMMULATIVE VALUE. The more resin you spend at lower AR the less value you get per resin spent as rewards increase with AR. Pre AR30 you have enough quests and oculus to collect such that ARxp is easier to get thru those methods than resin. AFTER AR30, with the lack of quests, dailies commissions and resin will actually become part of what you need to actually gain ARxp and ARlvls!
Im sure a speedrunner somewhere can map out an optimal F2P resin optimal run to 30AR but Im not going to do it. just keep in mind, least amount of resin used possible before AR30 to increase the value per resin spent.
What about post 30? this is supposed to be a late game guide??? depends on how much you play and how you enjoy the game~!
Generally you will cap out at around AR30-32 when you run out of oculus/quests. If you have the time and will to farm chests past that point (I dont think I do) then farm up as quickly as possible to AR35. Meanwhile you should be farming your lvl70ascension resin only mats for 2-3 characters and weapons at AR30+ so you can uncap immediately after AR35+.
However what if you've farmed mats for 2-3 characters and your still stuck at say AR33?(cuz chest grinding is cancer) Well here is where I think it gets complicated and up to personal preference. You could farm endgame artifacts at this point or continue to farm ascension mats for additional characters past your main DPS characters. If you want my advice (and thats why youre here right?) I would farm and ascend other characters to 60, as this will most likely hold value over time (i think) compared to artifacts which could rapidly lose value at higher ARs (you replace artifacts but xp is cumulative)
The problem with this is farming characterXP and mora for the upgrades. and if you need mora and characterXp... you farm chests.... which if your farming chests you might as well farm AR....but you don't wanna do that so maybe farm endgame artifacts....but you dont wanna farm artifacts cuz your AR isnt at its next breakpoint..... As you see this can get pretty cyclical without planning. But as a general guideline for this issue: Farm artifacts domains only when you are mora/ARxp gated to a point where you do not want to grind for chests for mora or ARxp. note this is for when you have farmed ascension mats for your next AR breakpoint on your main carries and this WILL take a while and should be reevaluated on a weekly/biweekly basis(boss/spiral abyss reset).
Last thing to keep in mind is that Weapon and Talent Domains change daily, rotating between 3 options with a mishmash on sundays. so keep those dates in mind when you plan on managing your AR thresholds for farming mats much like you would keep track of weekly resets for Dvalin and Wolfie in relation to AR.
MONSTERS AND CHESTS:
[Farmable Ascension Materials, Mora]
Google "Interactive Map Genshin" This probably should be earlier but use this to collect oculus and unlock things as necessary. Use the Chinese one if possible, it will generally have more stuff.
There are a few "unlimited resources" in genshin you can farm which I will list out and will cover some ways to farm them. ultimately to be "efficient" incorporate the interactive map to route out monster, chest, ore and plants into a single route that works for your material needs for your team. Make sure you are collecting multiple things on your routes to maintain maximum efficiency and shorten running between resources. Keep in mind these materials can be "stolen/borrowed" from co-op worlds so steal others and protects yours kekw (or let friends take the ones you don't need and vice versa) BUT breaking ores in coop worlds will net ore for BOTH players. Farm as much as possible/as necessary as this is what you do post AR30 when you've spent your resin and have done your dailies.
Monster Mats (track boss monster mats in your journal but you should farm these along the way of farming other mats like flowers to stay efficient)**
Mora (The big late game gate, Sigils are your best bet for "farming" mora, chests will have sigils and they are also scattered across the map, trade them in at the Gem icon in Liyue or Mondstat 1 or 2 for 1600)**
Character XP(Chests are your best bet here to drop charXP scrolls unfortunately, killing mobs is low return BUT DOES ADD UP, [level your characters to 49/59/69 to maximize mob XP.....or not....)|
Artifacts(base artifacts will drop from bosses and have spawn points in the map (check the interactive map!)
Flowers/Ores (USE INTERACTIVE MAP)
ARxp(CHEST FARMING REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE other users have posted tips regarding. Farm based on )
ONE MORE THING:
ARTIFACTS: Only farm in artifact domains after fulfilling conditions laid out in part 2!!!!!This section is honestly more of a what stats are good, rather than what artifacts are good. Much like weapons what is important is not the star value but the STATS THEMSELVES. So not instead of mindlessly saying:
%atk attack modifiers in general are the most important stats in the game for progression
We will add a TINY bit of nuance.So for XiangLing you want to stack as much +atk% as possible, HOWEVER other stats can be acceptable if they help you say get a super cool set bonus like martial artist or gladiator. over say adventurers. If you get a 2 martial artist pieces a feather with base atk (as always) and sayyyyy a goblet with +physicalatk%. Using this set is better than using an adventurers set of the same rarity but with Atk% instead of physatk% as the +15%normal attack bonus is stronger than +1000HP from adventurers.
This example is a very obvious judgement call but sometimes you will have to choose between martial artist and berserker or gladiators with various substats and mainstats or choose %atk vs %pyrodamage or whatever else in the late game as we will not have perfect artifact choices as a F2P player. These are the minmax calls you will have to test for yourself. but worry not. as long as you remember and apply:
%atk attack modifiers in general are the most important stats in the game for progression
This is because %atk will affect the damage from all of your sources, elemental, physical, normal, charged, whatever you want! because of this the minmax differences will be largely nominal this early into the game.

Check out Enviosity's stream and youtube for F2P proof of concept.

Check out me at SleightofHam for completely unrelated cooking content
TLDR: Log on and do your dailies. Spend Resin when you can. Hoard mats for future AR thresholds. 4star crafted weapons are good. Crescent Pike OP AF.
TLDR:DR: ITS JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER GACHAGAME EVER
Well thats it for now let me know if I missed anything yall think are important and ask questions in the comments.
submitted by Ogyusuh to Genshin_Impact [link] [comments]

My Take on the 2021 NFL QB Class

While this season has been massively impacted by COVID. I am probably the most hyped for the QB's than I have been in a while. Easily my favorite class since 2018 and easily the best since 2012 which is 1983 of all QB classes. 1983 featured six quarterbacks were taken in the first round—John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, and Dan Marino. Three ended up as Hall of Famers.

2012 featured first-round draft picks Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden, as well as third-rounder Russell Wilson. By season's end, three more rookie quarterbacks would start their first games – third-round draft pick Nick Foles, fourth-rounder Kirk Cousins, and sixth-rounder Ryan Lindley. While Luck retired early due to injuries ended what would be a hall of fame career, Russell Wilson looks like a lock for the hall and potentially the greatest QB in NFL history if he continues at this pace. Cousins and Tannehill have solidified themselves as legit starting QBs and Foles is a super bowl MVP.

This class features 12 guys to really watch and to me, four really special QBs in Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and D'Eriq King. Brock Purdy, Iowa State, Jamie Newman, Georgia, Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Kyle Trask, Florida, Shane Buechele, SMU. Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State and Tanner Morgan, QB, Minnesota.

Sunshine (Lawrence) is probably the most talented QB prospect to enter since Elway. Elite arm, arm talent, mobility, size, field vision, and has tremendous Football IQ. He has flaws, he has the Elway/Cutler syndrome where instead of anticipating where the WR is going to be, he sees them open which he can get away with but not always. He gets happy feet at times in a muddy pocket and wants to run. He needs playmakers more than he MAKES playmakers.

Lance has the best tape of the four horsemen. Best deep ball. 2nd best anticipation (King), 2nd best athlete (King), best system flexibility, 2nd best decision-maker (King), the closest prospect to Andrew Luck they say and I agree. His tape is amazing but like Luck, has flaws. Lance barely had a muddy pocket, only 14 sacks in 16 games. He was a big part of it with his pocket mobility but it wasn't that damn good. He rarely had to go to 3rd and 4th options but he did so well. 0 INTs but without elements, it's kinda hard to really evaluate is it real or not.

Fields has tremendous talent, size, the athletic ability for his size, arm strength, and is a solid decision-maker. What I like the most about Fields is his projectability and how well-coached he is as a prospect for a dual-threat guy. While I don't think he's superior QB wise to Haskins, he's a McNabb like athlete and I think he will translate as a solid starting QB in year 1. I do think translating to the NFL will be harder for him than people think but like Josh Allen, he has just enough athletic ability and size to really make things happen in the NFL and his arm is crazy strong as well. Just pure God-given talent and really well-coached.

King is the best QB in this class to ME overall. He reminds me the most of Burrow who was the best QB in the draft to me last year. A system QB who's best in a spread like Kyler Murray. He was PFF's best QB in 2018 in college football and he's on his way to being the best QB in 2020 as well. Like Burrow, he's an older QB, in fact, he's the same age(23) as Burrow and I think that gives him a lot of advantage over TL, JF, and TL who are all 20-21 years old. While he is similar to Burrow, he has elite elusiveness and break tackle ability like a running back. His flaws to me is his size, system flexibility, unlike Burrow, I would like him to have more pocket mobility like Wilson to counteract the lack of size, and he could still work to improve his arm talent like we have seen Wilson do when he joined the Seahawks. When I like a guy, I like him and I gave him a 1st round grade last year if he entered so why not again.

Others:
Brock Purdy, Iowa State, Jamie Newman, Georgia, Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Kyle Trask, Florida, Shane Buechele, SMU. Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State and Tanner Morgan, QB, Minnesota.

Purdy has a lot of Baker Mayfield in him including being bad in a muddy pocket. I just don't like him as much as Baker because well, Baker's production was insane. I think Purdy realistically is a 2nd round grade.

Newman has shades of Daunte Culpepper with his deep ball and his tremendous playmaking ability. He lacks the ability to just simply move the chains so personnel will be key with him. The talent and playmaking ability is exceptional but does he fit the modern NFL if he doesn't land on one of these big-play teams is the question. He has tremendous value in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Trask never started a HS game but that's okay because D'eriq King was their QB. Still, Trask got major SEC D1 offers and King did not. Trask had a good first year with the Gators and showed that he's a NFL level QB. I really feel he's in the mold of Kirk Cousins but with more size to boot which will impress scouts. 2nd or 3rd round grade.


Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Shane Buechele, SMU, Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State, and Tanner Morgan are all 4th to 5th rounders to me.

Ehlinger's best shades are a better throwing Tebow which I disagree with because Tebow was a much better football player than Sam is and Taysom Hill which I think actually makes some sense. As a backup, I like him overall.

Buechele is a tremendous system QB in the mold of Case Keenum. Keenum has had a tremendous career as a 2012 undrafted QB. In today's NFL where they are looking for QB's like Buechele as backups over the game managers. I expect Buechele to be taken in the 5th round as the game is changing for backup QBs.

Mond has raw but impactful arm strength, productive, and is an athletic QB who some teams love to bet on as a 1st rounder type. Some will say he's as talented as Jordan Love but I will argue that Love is a far better NFL prospect as he can throw into tight windows and while his decision making needs to improve as well as his mechanics, his arm talent is not off the charts as well. Now, he's a better prospect than someone like Kizer because he is productive, I have a tough time with inconsistent Black QB's almost all either have to produce or they are career backups. They don't get the time that white QB's get. I do think he's a 2nd round talent but I gave him a 5th round grade.

Morgan is a damn relic to me. The Matt Hasselbeck QB's are on the way out. Matt Ryan is the last of the Mohicans. My big issue with him for his style of QB, I would prefer he would be 6'4-6-6. Being that he's 6'2, he needs to be a lot more mobile than he is and I do think he has a strong NFL future but he's a backup at best to me. 4th to 5th round grade.

Overall, I love this QB class. It's deep, has tremendous top-heavy talent, and is worth talking about. I wasn't hyped at all about last year's class and Kyler Murray is a system QB and thankfully went to the right system. This is a class, you have a chance to hit big with a QB. I think teams should consider a QB this year even if you have one already entrenched.
submitted by nbasuperstar40 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

[Bloomberg] Day Traders Will Have Fun Until They Get Wiped Out

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-23/robinhood-traders-will-have-fun-until-they-get-wiped-out
One time when I was sitting in my college dormitory, I heard a whoop of joy from down the hall. My dormmate announced that he had just made $500,000 trading in the stock market, after having invested only a few thousand dollars. When I asked him how he did it, he grinned and simply said: “Call options.” I spent the rest of the day reading about how this marvelous financial instrument could be used to make a fortune in a day with just a small initial stake.
Of course, my lucky dormmate doubled down on his investment and ended up losing most of his money when the dot-com bubble burst a couple of months later.
This saga illustrates the danger of day trading, especially with leveraged instruments such as options. After the 2000 tech bust, day trading declined, but the coronavirus pandemic seems to be driving something of a renaissance. Goldman Sachs Investment Research reports that the percent of trading volume in the stock and option markets from small trades has increased a lot since January, while discount brokerage TD Ameritrade reports that visits to its website teaching people how to trade stocks have nearly quadrupled. Robinhood, a trading app that offers zero-commission trades and a simple, video-game-style interface, had 3 million new accounts opened in the first quarter. Half of its new customers are first-time investors. Many online communities are filled with the standard elements of day-trader culture -- stories of fabulous fortunes gained, hot tips, trading systems and theories and so on.
Coronavirus probably isn’t the only reason for the boom in day trading. Brokers realized that they could offer zero-commission trades and make up for it with interest earned by lending out their cash balances. Mobile apps made trading easier and more fun than ever, and allowed new traders to start off with small amounts of cash. A new generation of speculators has no painful memory of the dot-com bust.
But whatever the reasons, the new day trading mania is not likely to result in a happier outcome than the last one. There are many theoretical reasons and a wealth of empirical evidence to suggest that most day traders are wasting their money.
One of the most important concepts in finance -- and yet seemingly one of the hardest to understand -- is that there are two sides to every trade. For a day trader to make money, someone else has to lose money. In the most optimistic case, the loser could be a normal person who needs to put money in or take money out of their retirement account, and who therefore doesn’t worry much about the price at which they buy or sell. But most trades are not this. Instead, day traders are usually buying and selling either from each other, or from algorithms programmed by skilled, experienced financial professionals. If it’s the former, their trading is a zero-sum game. If it’s the latter, human day traders are very likely to lose because the people who program trading algorithms are typically very smart, and their computers can spot market-moving developments faster than people can. This is why professional human traders have been increasingly driven out of the market.
A related problem is the idea of slippage. Day traders might think that because they’re paying zero commission, their trades are free. But when a day trader places an order, a trading algorithm somewhere quickly figures out that they want to buy or sell, and raises or lowers the price accordingly, so that the day trader gets a less favorable price.
Another reason day trading is a bad idea is that people often fail to understand when they’re winning and losing. If the market as a whole goes up (as it has recently), many stocks will be winners. That can make a day trader feel like they won, even if they would have made as much or more money if they had simply bought an index fund and held onto it. This is especially true right now, when correlations between stocks are very high -- in this case, meaning many stocks are rising or falling together.
Finally, day traders often don’t understand the amount of risk they’re taking. Call options of the type my college dormmate bought, for example, are a form of leverage -- you might make fabulous riches, but you’re very likely to lose your money. One young novice investor tragically committed suicide after seeing his account generate large losses; though he probably misread the account statement, this incident drives home the point that investors may not be prepared for how much money they can lose with the trades they’re making.
A large amount of empirical evidence confirms that most day traders lose money. A very large 2004 study of Taiwanese day traders, for example, found that more than 80% lost money. A tiny number -- about 0.03% -- earned consistently large profits, but the odds of possessing this kind of skill are slim. Most studies of day traders in the U.S. and Finland yield similar results -- a few traders are consistently good, but most lose out.
Day trading might therefore be a fun way of gambling for those who are locked inside waiting out the pandemic. But if regular Americans start betting large amounts of their money on individual stocks and options, they’re courting financial ruin. If you want to day trade, the best thing to do is to bet only a small percent of your money to learn whether you’re one of the few who has the skill to beat the market. Day trading should be treated like an expensive video game, not like a way of getting rich quick.
submitted by jayatum to investing [link] [comments]

An honest review of the state of Clash Royale: make Clash Royale great again [HELP NEEDED] [HIGH EFFORT]

An honest review of the state of Clash Royale ← click/tap

TL;DR

Clash Royale casual player base has been reduced over the last month due to the Clan Wars 2.0.
In this Google Document:
I know that I have written a lot of text (it is taking me +5 hours to write everything), but I beg you to read it, or at least take a look at it.
Also I would really appreciate that you add comments in the Google Document in order to add new ideas, you can also ask me for permissions to edit the Document if you're willing to collaborate.
It would be awesome if you mentioned Drew in the comments section in order to bring these ideas to the Clash Royale team.

MY EXPERIENCE WITH CLASH ROYALE (WHICH NOBODY CARES ABOUT)

(Feel free to skip this part)
I knew about this game because it had become popular among my colleagues at the university in early 2017.
I started playing it without much hope, because I was always a console player and popular mobile games, like Angry Birds or Geometry Dash, bored me after a few hours. But when I played it, I started to like it, and I spent a couple of hours every day on it. I joined my friends' clan, where I knew about 20 people in real life. I kept playing for about 1 hour a day almost every day, but my friends slowly got bored and left the clan and the game.
By 2018, the clan was in the doldrums, our leader had not played for weeks, and we had many inactive members. There were few donations and exchanges. Since I knew him, I talked to him and asked his permission to do a cleanup in the clan, that's when he put me as the leader of the clan and left the game.
After this change, I became motivated and started making changes in the clan. I wrote some rules in a Google Drive document (if you are interested, check it out at tiny.cc/bataclan), started doing cleanups every few weeks, and tried to keep the clan full and with players who contributed to the clan, even though it wasn't mandatory to play Clan Wars 1.0. We became in the Top 100 clans in my region, +14k war trophies, the clan always with 50/50 members, and with about 10-15 members we reached +6k trophies in ladder every season.
One month after the disastrous update of the Clan Wars 2.0, the clan I spent so many hours with is dying at a dizzying rate. Only 36/50 members (and we have a hard time filling it up without lowering the required conditionsjijiji a lot), 2980 war trophies, no player with more than 6k trophies in ladder, and very few members left with whom I started in the clan. I have also played much less this month, normally I finished the Pass Royale in 2 weeks, and this season I have only reached the tier 13.d
I am a casual player, I have played this game more than any other in my life, and I have spent around $200 on the game. I love to play many different archetypes and that's why I've never been bored...
But the Clan Wars 2.0 update has made me feel angry, then sad, frustrated, and right now, disappointed. A mistake can be made by anyone, what bothers me the most is that the designers and developers have decided to bet on this update with everything against it and wait to see if the problems are solved by themselves. And this is not going dto happen.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

The broad answer is simple: designers and developers did not listen to the player community. They have to try to set aside the balance of costs and benefits, because if dthe player base drops to 0, so does the revenue. As a software developer I understand that it is important to have healthy financial accounts, but never at the cost of losing customers (players in this case).
Breaking down the answer, I want to list some notable problems:

Quality of Life updates:

There are not enough updates. I think it would be healthy for CR if bug fixes and small updates were introduced into the game every 1-2 weeks. The hardest part of accomplishing this would be having ideas on what changes to make, but Clash Royale is fortunate to have such a large community on Reddit. Developers should check the top-rated posts frequently and, instead of thinking, "CAN WE MAKE THESE CHANGES WITHOUT IMPACTING PROFITS?" ask themselves "HOW ARE WE GOING TO MAKE THESE CHANGES WITHOUT IMPACTING PROFITS?"

Benefits strongly linked to the progress of the players:

One of the main problems in Clash Royale is that a casual player like me, who has been playing non-stop for more than 3 years, and who has spent around $200 still cannot be maxed (only 26 cards maxed out of a total of 99+2). This should not be happening this way. Maxed players have a competitive advantage over other players, they can use any deck and take advantage of the strongest cards of the season.
An example of this was when the Clash Royale team decided that 2 tokens were necessary to carry out an exchange, because obviously players were being able to obtain the necessary cards to max out their favorite decks too quickly.
I suggest that the rewards increase so that a player around 6k trophies can max 32 cards a year, and a new player can max 8 cards in the first year. This would be playing all the challenges, participating in war every day, playing ladder trying to beat the maximum of trophies, etc. "Yeah sure, and how do you pay the salaries to the Clash Royale team?". I will answer you in the Solutions and ideas section (hint: Fortnite, Dota 2).

Major updates:

I understand that major updates require a lot of time and effort to execute, therefore I would be happy to receive them approximately every 6 months. The problem that I see with the current system is that the team cannot receive feedback from the players, and I understand that due to marketing issues they always try to keep it secret and create as much hype as possible; but doing so runs the risk of wasting a lot of time and effort on an update that players are going to hate (just like Clan Wars 2.0).

New cards and content:

I think that to spice up the game and make each season unique, it is important to release 1 new card each month. I think it's the best way to keep players active and without getting bored. I'll talk about the content in the Solutions and Ideas section.

Clan Wars 2.0

In this topic I am not going to extend much, since recently many users have analyzed in depth the problems that have arisen with this update, but I will focus on the main issues:

SOLUTIONS AND IDEAS:

If you have read all the way along I thank you for your patience!
I want to clarify that obviously I’m not God and I don’t have all the answers of how to make this game more attractive. I’m not a game designer either, but I think that as a player and software developer I can bring some ideas.

Quality of Life updates ideas

Just a few examples:
CLANS ENHANCEMENTS:
TRADE TOKEN ENHANCEMENTS
CHALLENGES ENHANCEMENTS:
If I’d spent more time thinking I could write down more and more ideas, but you wouldn’t read it, so better if I stop here.

Benefits strongly linked to the progress of the players

How would I solve this issue?

Major update

This could have a few solutions, but I think they aren’t compatible with the marketing of hype:

New cards and content

What do you want me to say? The solution is pretty obvious. Just add new cards, new cosmetics (at least 3-5 unique skins for each card, 3-5 emotes, etc), add new card challenges that can be unlocked when collecting the loyalty points, etc. Clash Royale team, just hire 20 more artists and flood the game with skins, emotes, and stuff.
Also it would be awesome if the shop was improved and all (but the exclusive ones) skins, emotes, tower skins… were always available for gems. Sometimes I feel the impulse of buying an emote (because some player BM me with it and it looked cool), but when I saw it on the shop a few weeks later this impulse was gone and I didn’t spend those 250 gems. This is bad for Clash Royale earnings, and for players (who are disappointed because they can’t fulfill their needs).

Clan Wars 2.0

Solutions for the previous issues:
Thanks for reading!
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Unibet: World Giants Available on US Market (Rating: 4.7/5) Offers & Promotions at Unibet Mobile App Welcome Bonus When you register an account at Unibet, you will get two $10 free bets without having to make the first deposit.They are going to be available for you immediately after signing up and those free bets are not restricted to any sport or market. When you’re looking at mobile betting offers, it’s important to take into consideration all the elements of a deal to see if it’s right for you: T&C – for betting apps with free bets offers, check the T&Cs to see whether the stake is included in any payout of winnings from your bonus bets (in most cases, it won’t be). Whether it be a sports betting app or a well-orchestrated mobile betting site, it is vitally important that customers be able to wager on the go in a timely and simple manner. In this entry, we look at which sportsbooks offer the best on-the-go product, what you can expect in mobile betting, and what to look for when you are choosing a site to ... As an added incentive to use mobile betting apps, many new mobile betting sites are offering a wide array of mobile bonuses to customers who download and use the apps to place wagers. Take a look at some of these mobile betting offers: 10Bet; The Mobile Welcome Bonus at 10Bet offers customers a welcome bonus of 100% up to $100. Punters need to ... The operator started offering online sports betting services in New Jersey only three months after PASPA was struck down, in fact it became the first legal mobile betting app outside Nevada. DraftKings currently offers mobile services in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana and New Hampshire.

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How To Get £50 Free Bets On Betway £50

There's also a section where you can see the latest mobile betting offers and money back specials. In terms of compatibility you'll find the BetVictor betting app works on the vast majority of ... Global Bet offers the most advanced Mobile Betting Experience. Instant Play and Action without any download or big band consumption. Fully customizable, Fully managed. Here are some of the best discount offer for sales of smart phone in Amozen. ... Online 4G Mobile Offers Mobile Offers on Amazon, Flipkart and Paytm Mall - Duration: 4:17. Welcome the best Fortnite Mobile Player, Ducky The Gamer. Official Obey Shop - Use code OBEY for a discount: https://obeyalliance.com/ Watch your favorit... How to get £50 free bets on Betway. This guide from Freebets.com will walk you through the process of finding free bets and show you how to get £50 free bets...

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